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Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Jingle, jingle, jingle! You will hear my sleigh bells ring! I am old Kris Kringle, I'm the King of Jingling. Well, not quite. But I am Cody Benjamin, your friendly neighborhood Wednesday newsletter fill-in, and I am feeling awfully merry as we embark on this holiday season. We still have football, after all! How many of us would've predicted that just before the season? Not only that, but we've got playoff football right around the corner.
Which is why today's newsletter is especially full of goodies. We've got playoff projections, Week 16 predictions and so much more. So bake some cookies, hang your stockings and let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
  1. Today's show: Analyzing the top draft prospects of college bowl season
The NFL is in full swing, but that doesn't mean we should just ignore what's happening in college football. We've got a good idea of who'll be picking atop the 2021 NFL Draft, after all, so now is as good a time as any to begin diving into potential 2021 draft gems. That's exactly what Ryan Wilson and Brady Quinn did on the latest Pick Six NFL Podcast (listen and subscribe right here!), running through evaluations of top prospects like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and DeVonta Smith.
You'll want to give the whole pod a listen for in-depth breakdowns, but here's a taste of Wilson and Quinn's analysis, with the latter offering some general concerns for potential top-five QB selection Mac Jones:
"He's ... accurate, coachable, all the things that have made him what he is," Quinn explained, "(but) he doesn't have any extraordinary talents, so the situation that he enters into is paramount. He doesn't have the shiftiness or the mobility of a Kyler Murray or the size or the arm strength of a Josh Allen. I don't think Sam Darnold is that different from him, at least in their size or attributes."
You can check out Wilson's latest mock draft here.
2. Prisco's Picks: Rams sweep Seahawks, Steelers edge Colts
We're in crunch time on the regular-season schedule as the playoff picture rounds into form. That means there's extra pressure on Pete Prisco to get his predictions right. So pay close attention here, because he's got a few bold ones buried in his Week 16 projections. Among them: A critical rebound by the Steelers, and yet another shakeup in the NFC West. Here's a sneak peek:
Rams at Seahawks (-1.5)
The Rams are coming off a loss to the Jets and now must win this game to have a chance to win the division. Seattle has been improved on defense, but I expect the Rams to come in here and play well. Sean McVay will get them back on track and they will limit Russell Wilson. Rams take it. 
Pick: Rams 26, Seahawks 20
***
Colts (-1.5) at Steelers
These two are both alive in the playoff chase, which makes this a big game. The Steelers are struggling in a big way to move the football, while the Colts defense has lagged some the past few weeks. Something will have to give. I think Ben Roethlisberger will make some plays down the field that have been missing. The Steelers will pull off the upset.
Pick: Steelers 23, Colts 21
3. Insider notes: Eagles, Steelers about to face ugly QB drama
Some teams are focused on the playoffs. Others are focused on finding their next quarterback. Some are focused on both (and playing each other this weekend; looking at you, Colts and Steelers). Fortunately for you, CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora has broken down all 32 QB situations  for 2021 to identify the 11 spots destined for a possible change. None, however, are more dire in terms of pure drama than the two Pennsylvania teams, with the Eagles and Steelers headed for potentially ugly offseasons. Carson Wentz may have already lost his job to Jalen Hurts in Philly, whereas Pittsburgh is facing tough conversations with Ben Roethlisberger:
It tends to get a little sticky when you have to move on from an icon (re: the last three years of Eli Manning's tenure in Gotham), and the Steelers are going to require some serious introspection about where they're going at QB. Thinking this will look better and just sort itself out next year doesn't seem prudent, and this is not an ascending athlete. All things come to an end, even first-ballot Hall of Fame things. Are GM Kevin Colbert and the Rooney family ready and willing to add true competition and let the best man win in 2021 or, gulp, move on?
4. QB Power Rankings: Brees back in top 10; Big Ben plummets
Big Ben sure is a hot topic right now, isn't he? The embattled Steelers QB saw the biggest decline in this week's QB Power Rankings after his Monday night flop against the Bengals. Other QBs actually have reason to bask in the merry aura of the holidays, though; Josh Allen, Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield all saw significant moves up. Here's a look at our latest top 10:
  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Josh Allen (+1)
  4. Russell Wilson (-1)
  5. Deshaun Watson
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Ryan Tannehill (+1)
  8. Kyler Murray (-2)
  9. Lamar Jackson (-2)
  10. Tom Brady (-1)
5. Teaser pick rankings: Bank on the Texans vs. Bengals
Want to make your holidays even merrier? Try tuning into betting expert R.J. White, who had five of six teaser picks cover in Week 15. This week, he's got five more picks for you to consider. His absolute best bet for Week 16: The Houston Texans taking care of business. The Bengals are fresh off an inspired primetime win, but R.J. doesn't buy Cincy as a sustainable challenger:
Last week, the Texans were our No. 1 team to tease against, so why do they take the top spot one week later? Well, just look at the team they're playing. The Bengals are coming off an enormous upset of the Steelers in a game where the defense played like it was the Super Bowl. On a short week against a non-rival, we can't expect that type of intensity. And it's not like Ryan Finley  blew the doors off in the win, his first ever. Expect Deshaun Watson and Co. to get the win as Cincy comes back down to earth.
6. Projected playoff chances: Dolphins set to be the odd man out
OK, kids, time to buckle up. The playoffs are what really matter now, so it's becoming increasingly important to monitor John Breech's roundup of every team's postseason chances -- a supreme number-crunching ordeal powered by SportsLine forecasts. Want to know if your team has a shot? This is the piece to check out. The most interesting inclusion at this point might be the AFC wild card race, where the Colts, Browns, Ravens, Dolphins and Raiders are essentially fighting for three spots. Here's how the computers rank the contenders by likelihood of cracking the playoffs entering Week 16:
  1. Browns (92.4%)
  2. Colts (90.2%)
  3. Ravens (76.5%)
  4. Dolphins (44%)
  5. Raiders (0.2%)
 
 
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