| | | | Tuesday, February 13, 2024 | | Here's the first thing you need to know about the outfield position: It just isn't very good for Fantasy Baseball. | | There are, to be clear, a bunch of really, really good players jumbled up at the top of the outfield rankings, with what I would argue are nine first-round caliber players at the position no matter the format. If you're looking at the consensus rankings, that takes us all the way to Yordan Alvarez , who is the 15th player in FantasyPros.com's consensus ADP for 2024. At the top, outfield might be a historically strong position right now. | | It's what happens after that gets pretty ugly. There's an almost two-round drop in ADP price between Alvarez and the next outfielder, Michael Harris, which means only 13 more outfielders come off the board between the 15th and 100th overall picks in ADP. Which is to say, if you miss on one of those top guys this season, you're way behind the competition, in a way that just isn't true at the other positions in Fantasy. | | Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OFPosition Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OFPosition Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | | | | In today's newsletter, we're moving on to our outfield preview. We kicked things off Monday night with our Outfield Preview, Part 1 episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, where Scott White, Frank Stampfl and I talked about the top-15 players at the position. We also dove into our favorite sleepers, breakouts, and busts, so you'll want to make sure you're listening (or watching!) to that before we get started. | | Alright, are you caught up? We're going to do Part 2 on the podcast Wednesday night, but you can get deeper on the position with the rest of today's newsletter. Start with Scott White's Outfield Strategies column and then check out my Outfield Preview piece on CBSSports.com as our guide for what could be the shallowest position in Fantasy in 2024 drafts. | | | | 2024 Outfield Preview | | "When you fire up your draft this year, you'll probably notice something about the positional breakdown of Round 1: It's almost entirely outfielders. By ADP, eight of the first 12 picks are outfielders, and another, Yordan Alvarez, will climb his way into that group in some leagues. | | "Well," you might think to yourself, "it's clear where all the talent lies. I'm going to outsmart everyone and take one of the top infielders instead, happy to settle for what I'm sure will still be a quality option at this obviously loaded position." | | But all you'll have done in that case is outsmart yourself. The outfield is brutally duplicitous this year. For what it offers in top-shelf, awe-inspiring, make-or-break-your-season talent, it lacks in all other forms of talent. This might not be such a problem at a position where every team starts just one player, but outfield happens to be the one offensive position where, regardless of format, every team starts several. | | By now, you've read my strategy guide for each of the infield positions (and if you haven't, get to it), so you're at least vaguely aware that I'd be content starting any of the top 15 or so options at each. Here, though, it's more like the top-30 options -- which is a bigger number, yes, but when you consider that three times as many outfielders are started as any one type of infielder, the proportionate number would be 45. | | Now imagine if it's a five-outfielder league. | | What I'm getting at is that, beyond Round 1 at least, outfield is the pits, which not only ramps up the pressure to invest in Round 1 but also requires a riskier approach in the rounds that follow. (And yes, this goes double in five-outfielder leagues.) | | Basically, there are two positions around which you should devise your draft strategy in 2024. One is starting pitcher, because one is always starting pitcher, but the other is outfield. With every pick you're about to make, you should ask yourself if there's an outfielder who would work just as well. And if there is, you should take him. | | Unless, of course, you're already full in the outfield, but the odds of that are slim to none, I'd say." | | -From Scott White's 'Outfield Strategies' column | | Offseason Recap | | Juan Soto traded to the Yankees Jung-Hoo Lee signed a six-year deal with the Giants Lourdes Gurriel signed a three-year deal with the DiamondbacksCody Bellinger remains a free agent Tyler O'Neill traded to the Red SoxJarred Kelenic traded to the Braves Kevin Keiermeier signed a one-year deal with the Blue JaysHarrison Bader signed a one-year deal with the Mets Mitch Haniger traded to the Mariners Mark Canha traded to the Tigers | | There was plenty of action at outfield, and there remains at least one big name out there on the market, but I want to focus on two big deals here: Soto and Lee. | | We'll start with Lee, whose name you might not be familiar. Lee got a $113 million contract from the Giants after a career in Korea where he was one of the best players in the league. We don't have a ton of examples of players coming from Korea to the majors and thriving, and Lee's profile is a tough one to make sense of for Fantasy, despite the big contract. His career high in homers is just 23 in 2022, and Lee's quality of contact metrics that season were worse pretty much across the board than Ha-Seong Kim in his final season in Korea. Kim was a very good Fantasy option last season mostly because of how much he ran, and that doesn't seem to be a big part of Lee's game either -- he averaged just under 10 steals per season in Korea (Kim had multiple 20-steal seasons, for context). Lee is an interesting late-round sleeper given the investment from the Giants, but we don't have much concrete to go on that suggests Lee is going to be a Fantasy contributor, especially in Roto leagues; his contact-oriented profile may play up more in H2H points leagues, especially if he hits near the top of the Giants lineup. | | As for Soto, well, we know he's a dominant force, and his surrounding got a lot better this offseason. Soto is one of the best hitters in the game, a 25-year-old who already seems like his career is going to wind up in Cooperstown. But he struggled mightily in San Diego -- and I literally mean in San Diego, where he is a career .231/.374/.409 hitter. Petco Park is a notoriously difficult park for left-handed hitters, so that makes sense. Yankee Stadium, on the other hand, has the second-best home run park factor for left-handed hitters over the past three seasons. Getting out of San Diego should help Soto; getting into Yankee Stadium should help even more. I'm expecting the best season of Soto's career, more or less. | | | | Consensus rankings | | For breakdowns of each of the top 12 and more, head here. | | Ronald Acuna, Braves (The Unmatched Tier)Julio Rodriguez, Mariners Corbin Carroll, DiamondbacksMookie Betts, Dodgers Kyle Tucker, Astros Fernando Tatis, PadresAaron Judge, YankeesJuan Soto, YankeesYordan Alvarez, Astros (The First-Rounders Tier) Luis Robert, White Sox Mike Trout, AngelsCody Bellinger, Free AgentAdolis Garcia, Rangers Michael Harris, BravesRandy Arozarena, Rays Kyle Schwarber, Phillies Nolan Jones, RockiesJoshua Lowe, Rays Jazz Chisholm, MarlinsChristian Yelich, BrewersJackson Chourio, Brewers Wyatt Langford, Rangers (The Near-Elite Tier)Bryan Reynolds, Pirates Spencer Steer, Reds (The Next-Best ThingsTier) | | If you go to Scott's tiers piece here, you'll see what we mean when we talk about the position's relative weakness, and it's really apparent after that first-round tier. Scott doesn't rank a single outfielder in his "The Also-Elite" tier, skipping straight from that first-round tier to "The Near-Elite" tier. What that means, in simple terms: Scott won't be drafting any outfielders in the second or third round, in all likelihood. I more or less rank it the same way: Luis Robert is a third-rounder for me, but he's the only OF in either round of my rankings (in Roto leagues, at least). | | FBT Outfield Superlatives | | Sleepers | | Scott: Jackson Chourio, Brewers Chris: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals Frank: Lars Nootbaar , Cardinals | | "The Brewers signed Jackson Chourio to a long-term contract, taking the service time manipulation incentive off the table completely. The Brewers have also left a clear opening for Chourio in their lineup, as the Orioles have for Jackson Holliday . Caminero's and Wyatt Langford's paths are cloudier, but no one standing in their way is immovable. The beauty of this new incentive is that the talent tends to win out. | | And the talent is what matters for our purposes. It's true that, on the whole, prospect call-ups haven't been as bankable in recent years (see Walker, Volpe), but if anything, that's only helped to drive down the cost of such lottery tickets. Those who invested in Carroll and Henderson last year, not to mention Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez the year before, were richly rewarded. Drafting a prospect is still your best bet for securing huge production at a not-so-huge cost, and while it's a bet you may ultimately lose, the consequences at these players' current cost are almost nothing. We'll revisit when it becomes clear this spring that they're competing for a job and begin flying up draft boards as a result, but if you're drafting on the early side, then by all means, take advantage." -Scott | | Breakouts | | Chris: Riley Greene, Tigers Scott : Seiya Suzuki, CubsFrank : Seiya Suzuki, Cubs | | "Greene has now suffered three pretty significant injuries since the start of the 2022 season: A fractured foot just before the start of his rookie season, a stress reaction in his left fibula in May of 2023, and then a torn ligament in his non-throwing elbow that required surgery to end the 2023 season. He is expected to be fully ready for the start of this season, and I continue to be very interested in his skill set. He hit .288/.349/.447 last season despite the injuries, with underlying metrics that suggest he might have deserved even better - he had a .289 expected batting average and .499 expected slugging percentage. He hasn't shown much stolen base upside, and the injury history probably means he won't run enough to have much more than about a 10-steal ceiling, but if he hits like his Statcast metrics suggest he could, that probably won't matter. It definitely feels like there's another level to unlock as a power hitter, and if he does, Greene still has a really high ceiling." -Chris | | Busts | | Scott: Esteury Ruiz, Athletics Chris- Lane Thomas, Nationals Frank- Luis Robert, White Sox | | "For at least some of these players, there's a point where I would be willing to draft them, but I have a hard time seeing myself getting there with Thomas. His ADP is about 80 spots higher than I have him ranked right now. Thomas' stolen base abilities give him a reasonably high floor, but he put up a .223/.274/.431 line during the second half of last season, which looks a lot like a guy with a career .726 OPS prior to last season turning back into what he was - that he only had a .755 OPS during his minor-league career doesn't hurt the case. The underlying metrics suggest that Thomas overachieved for most of the season, as his expected average of .255 and xSLG of .436 were both well short of what he managed for the season. A low-to-mid-.700s OPS bat with 20-steal potential can be a useful Fantasy option, but it's not worth a pick in the first 10 rounds." -Chris | | Favorite to draft (based on ADP) | | Chris: Fernando Tatis, Padres; Kyle Schwarber, PhilliesScott: Joshua Lowe, RaysFrank: Randy Arozarena, Rays; Bryan Reynolds, Pirates | | | | | | | | Born To Play | | UEFA Champions League | It doesn’t matter where you were born, if you’re born to play football. 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