|
|
Thursday, February 8, 2024 |
How's this for a sign of the times in Fantasy Baseball? Mookie Betts has second base eligibility for 2024, and it's not at all a guarantee you'll play him there. |
That might be the biggest example of how the landscape has changed over the past few years, because there was once no way you'd ever play a second-base eligible, first-round pick anywhere but second base. However, the position suddenly looks pretty deep, with eight eligible players going off the board in the top 100 of NFBC ADP – there are 21 outfielders, of course, but once you account for the fact that you have to start at least five of them, compared to only one second baseman, you can see where we're coming from. |
But here's the thing about second base, though … the depth might be an illusion. Betts is a superstar with basically no holes in his game, and I've got nothing bad to say about Ozzie Albies. After that? Jose Altuve and Marcus Semien are 34 and 33 years old, and while they've certainly defied aging curves so far, both have profiles where they maximize their middling power with a pull-heavy swing that could leave them with a razor-thin margin for error if their skills decline any further. |
And those are the relatively sure things at the position! |
|
Beyond them, you've got one-year wonders like Nico Hoerner, Ha-Seong Kim, and Bryson Stott, plus a partial-year wonder in Matt McLain. Now, of course, every superstar starts out as a one-year wonder at some point, so that's not to say all of those guys are going to flop. But it is to say that there isn't much track record to go on when you're investing a top-100 pick in all those guys. |
I'm not saying second base isn't going to be a strong position. I'm just saying there are plenty of potential pitfalls here you have to be careful of. You might find yourself leaning on one of those guys for a big chunk of your stolen base totals, only to find yourself stuck either fielding a replacement-level hitter just for the steals or stuck trying to find another answer because they just aren't doing enough else to justify the cost. |
|
Here's what the keystone looks like for 2024 drafts. |
- Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B
- Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B
- Position Tiers: C | 1B | 2B
|
|
2024 Second Base Preview |
"For 2024, at least, there's no more confounding position than second base. It offers such a wide variety of skill types, at all different assurance levels, that it's hard to say exactly what the plan of attack should be. |
So maybe ... don't have one. Too chaotic for you? Well, listen, I'm not saying you can't aim for a particular assurance level, be it high end, middle end or low end, but if you go into a draft dead set on landing a base-stealer or slugger or whatever else at second base, then you're missing out on a golden opportunity to regulate mid-draft. |
That's the best way I can think to describe second base for 2024: It's the ultimate draft regulator. After a few rounds, your team may be skewed a certain way -- toward home runs, toward stolen bases or whatever else -- and second base is your chance to get it back on track. No matter what you need, you can find it there, and the bulk of it is available during that middle portion of the draft when you know exactly what you need. |
Naturally, this approach only makes sense for categories leagues, such as standard Rotisserie. For points leagues, it's more straightforward because what a player does isn't as important as how much of it he does. And along those lines, that whole middle portion of second base, which ranges from Nico Hoerner to Zack Gelof by ADP, contributes in about equal measure." |
|
Offseason Recap |
|
It's been a quiet offseason overall, but there really wasn't much movement that was ever going to happen at second base one way or the other. The Polanco trade came as something of a surprise, and it's definitely a negative park shift for him, which isn't great. But Polanco's bat should play anywhere -- if he can stay healthy. He hasn't played more than 104 games in either of the past two seasons. As for Merrifield? 2023 was a solid bounceback for him, and he could be a viable starting Fantasy option if he lands in the right spot. But he's running out of time to sign somewhere he'll get a chance to start. |
|
|
|
- Mookie Betts, Dodgers (The First-Rounders Tier)
- Ozzie Albies, Braves
- Marcus Semien, Rangers
- Jose Altuve, Astros (The Also-Elite Tier)
- Nico Hoerner, Cubs
- Matt McLain, Reds
- Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks
- Gleyber Torres, Yankees
- Ha-Seong Kim, Padres
- Bryson Stott, Phillies
- Andres Gimenez, Guardians
- Zack Gelof, Athletics (The Near-Elite Tier)
|
You can quibble with who belongs in which specific tier, but I think having a fairly wide third tier here makes a lot of sense. I have more confidence in Hoerner than I do Gimenez, but the skill sets are fairly similar -- contact-oriented hitters with maybe 15 homer ceilings who should steal a bunch of bases. Again, Hoerner seems like the better bet for average and steals, so he deserves a higher ranking, but tiering them together makes sense. Ditto for Gelof and McLain, two second-year players who looked like starts on the surface, have some frightening underlying metrics, and high-variance profiles. Either could be a must-start guy, but McLain was a more well regarded prospect whose production in the majors was also a bit more impressive, so it makes sense to rank him ahead, while putting Gelof lower in the same tier. |
FBT Second Base Superlatives |
Sleepers |
|
"Grissom should play every day in a dangerous lineup and one of the best ballparks for right-handed hitters. According to Statcast park factors, Fenway Park grades out as the third-best park for right-handed bats. Even though Grissom doesn't offer the most power, line drives and fly balls to the pull side should result in extra bases thanks to the Green Monster. Just two years ago, Grissom was viewed as a league-winner down the stretch of the 2022 season. In just 51 games, he hit .291 with five homers and five steals. Additionally, all Grissom has done in the minors is hit. In 329 career games down there, he's batting .320 with an .884 OPS. If I'm projecting Grissom, I'll say he hits .280-plus with modest power and speed, think 15 home runs and 15 steals. He's a great name to target as a late-round middle infielder with upside." -Frank |
Breakouts |
|
"The underlying numbers suggest Gelof played over his head a bit in his rookie campaign, which shouldn't come as a huge surprise - he was on a nearly 6-WAR pace, and he's probably not going to be a fringe MVP candidate. But the underlying numbers still suggest he was a very solid hitter, with a .253 expected batting average and .448 expected slugging percentage. Batting average might be a struggle for Gelof, given a strikeout rate that will likely remain in the high-20s and a home park that isn't going to do him any favors as a hitter. However, he had 26 homers and 34 steals in 138 games between Triple-A and the majors last season, and I definitely don't think 20-20 or even 25-25 is out of the question here. Add in a likely locked in spot near the top of the lineup, and Gelof could be a really nice source of counting stats across all five categories. There's some "poor man's Marcus Semien" potential here." -Chris |
Busts |
|
"At this time a year ago, Kim was known mostly as the defensive standout responsible for bumping Jake Cronenworth to first base and, in a less direct way, Fernando Tatis to the outfield. But he had turned himself into an instrumental Fantasy player by season's end, mostly by way of his new stolen base prowess. That has as much to do with the stolen base environment improving (through limited pickoff attempts, bigger bases, etc.) as anything, which means it may be here to stay. But even so, he's unlikely to improve upon the 38 steals he had last year. |
And that's basically my entire objection to Kim for 2024. It just seems like he did everything as well as he could possibly do it in 2023." -Scott |
Favorite to draft (based on ADP) |
- Chris: Gleyber Torres Ketel Marte, Nolan Gorman
- Scott: Jose Altuve
- Frank: Jose Altuve, Gleyber Torres
|
|
| | | | | | Get ready for Super Bowl LVIII by watching the NFL Super Bowl Classics Channel, exclusively on Pluto TV now until February 21st. For a limited time, relive 54 historical Super Bowls and catch award-winning programs from NFL Films. Watch Free | | Saturday on CBS, it’s a college hoops doubleheader, beginning at 2 PM ET with a Big Ten matchup between #10 Illinois at Michigan State, followed by Gonzaga heading to Rupp Arena to face #17 Kentucky. That’s all coming up Saturday on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live |
|
|
|