Last night, I caught a spontaneous trip to the K (Kauffman Stadium) to watch the Kansas City Royals. My buddies showed up at my house to watch the game on TV, and in the second inning, we decided to just make the 11 minute drive to the park. We were seated by the fourth inning! Royals took it in an exciting extra-inning game, and I made it home to catch the end of Lakers-Wolves. Today, we're digging into the incoming rookies at the WR position! And tomorrow, I'm heading back to the K for a Royals day game! And then it's NFL Draft weekend! What a time to be alive as a sports fan!

I'm feeling a bit behind because of the unplanned late night away from home, but it was probably good for me to not spend another night watching film/grinding on TruMedia. I think that some spontaneity is good! Let's talk about one of the most spontaneous positions in football, let's dive into these receivers and what types of creative paths each might take to find success at the NFL level.

(For Dynasty Fantasy Football purposes)

Tier 1

WR1 -- Tetairoa McMillan
WR2 -- Travis Hunter
WR3 -- Luther Burden
WR4 -- Emeka Egbuka
WR5 -- Matthew Golden

Tier 2

WR6 -- Jaylin Noel
WR7 -- Tre Harris
WR8 -- Jayden Higgins
WR9 -- Elic Ayomanor
WR10 -- Tory Horton
WR11 -- Kyle Williams

Tier 3

WR12 -- Jalen Royals
WR13 -- Jack Bech

Tier 4

WR14 -- KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR15 -- Isaac TeSlaa
WR16 -- Elijhah Badger
WR17 -- Savion Williams

Tier 5 
WR18 -- Pat Bryant
WR19 -- Andrew Armstrong
WR20 -- Xavier Restrepo

I'm waiting to see if they get drafted to rank them:

Dont'e Thornton Jr. -- His per-opportunity data is awesome, and his film shows speed to burn at six-foot-five

Isaiah Bond -- Electric as a mover, but underwhelming data and off-field concerns

Percentage of team receiving yards when on the field

Percentage of team receiving TDs when on the field

Career percentage of team receiving yards when on the field

Career percentage of team receiving TDs when on the field

WR1 -- Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

22.6 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

I started my process with film first this year. For the first time, I watched the prospects before digging into any data. For top prospects such as McMillan, I watched every snap of every game that I could find. I loved McMillan's film. He occasionally struggles with physical play, but he's still young and filling out his frame. He doesn't have run-away speed, and his first step isn't as lethal as Drake London's, for example. But everything else was awesome. His ability to throttle down and come back to the ball is unfair for a player at his size, and he catches everything away from his body. This ability to keep defenders away from the ball by using his frame allows McMillan to win even on reps where he didn't create tons of separation with his feet. He does create separation with his feet sometimes, by the way.

He's a joy to watch catch the ball, in a myriad of ways, McMillan wins at the catch point. And he's really good with the ball in his hands! McMillan certainly has room for significant improvement, but his film showed enough translatable skills to bet on him as a productive player right away.

The other thing that I noticed in McMillan's film was how often he was missed on a throw or a turndown by his QB. It also did not feel like his offensive design did much to maximize his skill set. So, it was not a surprise to find that his data profile was good but not great. That's not a concern for me. One data point that I will cling to until McMillan disproves the notion is his lack of production vs. press coverage.

If he's drafted to Carolina or New England -- anywhere that might ask T-Mac to immediately produce as a primary X-receiver would make me nervous that his developmental track may become rushed. Ideally, he'd land somewhere like Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr. as the primary X, with both Round 1 receivers offering flexibility for Liam Coen to move around the formation and create mismatches. I'm not sure if McMillan is ready for the physicality of NFL press coverage during his age-23 rookie season.

WR2 -- Travis Hunter, Colorado

22.5 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

If Hunter is selected to a team that commits to him as a full-time receiver, he's probably going to be the biggest steal of Dynasty rookie drafts. His combination of movement skills unlocks any route, and his otherworldly catch radius and adjustment skills when playing a ball in the air allows Hunter to win even on reps where his route running wasn't decisive enough for an initial W. He has the traits to become one of the most difficult coverage assignments in the NFL.

And, really, when allowed to play as a full-time receiver at Colorado, Hunter was more productive than any WR from the 2025 class.

Some cite Hunter's relatively underwhelming per-route data, but even that is easily contextualized.

Averaging nearly 3.00 yards per route run without taking part in the WR meetings throughout the week is pretty absurd stuff. Hunter basically rolled out of bed and put up 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns. I'm content taking a "risk" on this talent, even if the outlook isn't quite as clear as that offered by a traditional early Round 1 receiver.

WR3 -- Luther Burden, Mizzou

21.8 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

One of the most enigmatic WR prospects in recent memory, Burden could turn into thousands of words in this space if I attempted to explore every nuance of his profile. The reality is this: we have no way of predicting what will come from a profile like this. When "effort" becomes part of the equation, it is so clearly out of our hands as best guessers.

The flashes of elite WR upside are absolutely real:

Ball tracking 1
Ball tracking 2
Feel for space
Start/stop suddenness

We don't know if he can win vs. press coverage. We don't know if he can run a detailed route tree. We don't know if he can stay locked in if things aren't going his way. I watched every route from an abysmal 2024 season, and he clearly appeared to voluntarily drift out of plays.

I'm willing to bet on the skill set. He's not a small gadgety slot receiver. He has the size and play strength to develop into something like an early-career Chris Godwin, and I actually think that Burden might offer significantly more juice as a downfield route runner. That's based on only a handful of flashes from his film, though. He's purely hypothetical upside at this point, and I wouldn't blame anyone for removing him from their board in a draft class with lots to like. More for me, I guess. I expect he'll end up as a late Round 1 or early Round 2 pick in Dynasty rookie start-ups, and I view those picks as 50/50 shots at returning value. So I'm fine taking an L if Burden's career flames out. The upside is there for him to be one of the most valuable Fantasy contributors from this class, and it could happen in Year 1. He absolutely has the talent to be a big-play creator and/or a reception accumulator from the slot as a rookie.

WR4 -- Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

22.9 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

I don't have much to add on Egbuka. He's probably "just" the "safest" receiver pick in the draft. There's value in that. Robert Woods feels exactly right as a comp. I was a huge Bobby Trees fan. In the right offensive environment, Egbuka could be a highly-productive Fantasy receiver, and he's probably going to be a good pro no matter where he lands. I don't expect him to create much on his own, but he's rock solid. If the Burden profile makes you nauseous, Egbuka is your antithetical antidote. Feel better, there's no need to ride the Burden rollercoaster, don't let my insanity worry you. 

Here's what I will add -- there might be untapped upside! Egbuka averaged over three yards per route run with C.J. Stroud at QB. His numbers weren't as good with Kyle McCord and Will Howard. Did you watch those offenses? They maneuvered around limitations at the QB position.

For his career, Egbuka averaged 16.5 yards per target on throws of 15+ air yards. That was the third-highest mark in the class and by far the highest of any WR who played in the SEC or Big 10. Not what you might expect from a guy who was mostly used as a slot and pre-snap motion player in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't blame anyone for pushing Egbuka ahead of Burden. Depending on draft results, I might do just that.

WR5 -- Matthew Golden, Texas

22.1 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

If Golden's data was better, he'd be in contention for the top spot (assuming his projected mid-Round 1 draft capital holds true) in this WR class. I liked his route-running that much. I gave him a Ladd McConkey/Josh Downs comp, in terms of suddenness, and I never do that! Those two put some of the most fun route-running reps on tape of any receivers in 2024!

Golden was showing up open all over his Texas film, but the offense was a mess. As a 19-year-old at Houston, Golden gave us some encouraging data points. Enough so that I'm willing to take his 2024 data with a grain of salt. He was great against man coverage during his freshman season and accounted for a whopping 60% of Houston's receiving touchdowns when on the field during his sophomore season.

He took over at Texas to close out his junior season. He's one of the youngest receivers in the draft and could develop into a pro who wins all over the field as a route-runner, ball-winner, and yards after catch creator. Feel free to doubt -- the data certainly would tell you to -- but do realize that there's massive upside in Golden's skill set.

WR6 -- Jaylin Noel, Iowa State

23 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Another receiver with the quick feet to draw McConkey/Downs comparisons, Noel is so easy to like. He is a dawg. 23 bench reps at the combine, and he gets every bit out of his physical talent. Noel plays through contact as a route-runner and is probably the most underrated contested catch-winner in the draft. The Downs comparison comes easily.

When I watched Noel's film, the player who came to mind was Tank Dell. I don't think that Noel has quite the explosiveness laterally as Downs. He absolutely jumped out of the gym, with a 41.5-inch vertical and 11'2" broad jump, so do not mistake him for lacking any explosiveness!

Noel's data profile was a bit underwhelming, but I do think that it can be contextualized with film. The QB play was bad. That was the case for a lot of these prospects, but Noel's stood out. Also, the offense mostly ran through Jayden Higgins as the first-read target. Noel moved around the formation as eye candy a lot, but he was used as a space-clearer on downfield routes more than a primary target. I think that he can be a primary target in the same way that Dell was when Nico Collins missed time in 2023. And Noel's ability to win on in/out breaking routes is probably closer to McConkey level than Dell, which is a compliment. I use Dell as a comparison because Noel mostly worked down the field and did not create much YAC. McConkey and Downs are both better with the ball in hand.

I think that using a late first or early second-round pick on Noel is totally justifiable. Players like this are winning more and more in today's NFL. If an NFL team invests that type of capital into Noel, he'll push into Tier 1 in my WR rankings. He's not far behind Burden and Golden in terms of raw skill set, and the profile is similar in some ways stylistically. Noel has been the most underrated WR this draft cycle, if looking for elite explosive play potential. He is lightning transitioning in and out of feints and cuts as a downfield route-runner. He might be soon seen as one of the most dangerous speed coverage assignments in the NFL.

WR7 -- Tre Harris, Ole Miss

23.7 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

He's old, and his skill set might not be a clean fit for Fantasy, but Harris is extremely intriguing. He's a prototypical X-receiver who wins with overwhelming force on the vertical plane. Those types of receivers are being phased out of target distributions around the league. Only the truly elite -- Mike Evans and Tee Higgins -- can consistently demand targets. We've seen DK Metcalf become phased out because of efficiency concerns. These type of targets just aren't working as well as catch-and-run space-seeking targets.

Harris might have the goods to join the elite tier of this prototype.

Check out this comparison between Harris and Brian Thomas Jr. as prospects. BTJ clearly eclipses anything Harris (or basically anyone else in human existence) offers from an athletic testing standpoint. The two are worth comparing because of the way that they were deployed at the CFB level. Extreme simplicity in their route trees left question as to whether Harris or BTJ might be able to fill a more nuanced role as a pro.

BTJ's Reception Perception data is similar to Harris' in a lot of ways but distinctly different in one -- horizontally breaking routes strongly favored the former LSU standout. That could prove to be extremely important as Harris adjusts to a higher level of competition.

Still, the fact that Harris graded out better than BTJ in a number of important Reception Perception data points stands out. The talent is too legit.

WR8 -- Jayden Higgins, Iowa State

22.7 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

I liked the skill set on film. There are nits to pick, and Matt Harmon certainly noticed them. I thought that the strengths of his game outweighed the limitation that Higgins brings. That was the case at the collegiate level. We'll see how it translates to the pros. Higgins was knocked off his track too easily and could struggle vs. press coverage. Although, his CFB data vs. press coverage was among the best in the class .

I was impressed with the way that Higgins worked back to the ball and attacked at the catch point. I view him as a discount version of Tet McMillan, but it's definitely worth noting that his Reception Perception data paints Higgins as a limited route runner. It's possible that there is a threshold at which a player like this is capable of finding success as a pro, and McMillan happens to be just above it while Higgins is just below it.

Matt views Higgins as best-suited for a slot role to begin his career. He worked well out of the slot at Iowa State, and the possibility of him filling that type of role as a pro is an important distinction between him and prospects like Tre Harris and Elic Ayomanor. It gives him more paths to success if Higgins isn't able to draw targets as an outside receiver.

Higgins offers one of the wider ranges of outcomes among the WR prospects and might be the single most-sensitive to landing spot at the position. In an offense with slot reps available, Higgins could be one of the most productive receivers from this class. The Cardinals, Broncos, Jaguars, and Steelers feel like ideal fits.

WR9 -- Elic Ayomanor, Stanford

22.2 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Did you notice Ayomanor's name at the top of the above list? That list can signal a lot of different things, one of which is an unhealthy offensive environment where one person is leaned upon as the only one capable of creating wins. That's what I saw when I watched Stanford's offense. Ayomanor often created wins, and often, Stanford's offense wasn't capable of facilitating any type of production on those plays.

Watch this thread, if you have a moment. He's so overwhelming as a combination of power and quickness. He moves his feet at unfair speeds for a player of this size. Even for Travis Hunter, Ayomanor was overwhelming. To be fair to Hunter, that was his first game back from an injury. But Ayomanor completely dominated him.

Matt Harmon brought up valid concerns in Ayomanor's Reception Perception profile . His feel for zone coverage is a red flag and could lead to Ayomanor not seeing many targets as a pro. He also was inconsistent at the line of scrimmage when working vs. press. Ayomanor's ball tracking and hands are a clear work in progress and may prove to simply be a limitation. It would not surprise me if Ayomanor takes a long time to develop into a competent pro, and he may never get there. He could take the Denzel Mims track. For as easy as it is to become enamored with a player like this, do recognize that he'll need an offensive environment capable of cultivating growth. He's an incomplete player, and his profile is somewhat similar to Tre Harris, in terms of where he wins and the likelihood of his target total becoming capped as a result. Ayomanor is probably going to be an X-receiver who mostly works down the field against opposing number one corners. His path to Fantasy success won't be easy. Draft responsibly.

WR10 -- Tory Horton, Colorado State

22.8 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Draft capital might tell us a lot about Horton's outlook as a pro. It's always tough to guess how a small-school WR might translate their game at the NFL level. A Day 2 vote of confidence would go a long way in easing my mind. I'm super excited for his playmaking potential. Check out this thread if you want to join me as a Horton fan.

WR11 -- Kyle Williams, Washington State

22.8 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Williams didn't run in the 4.2's, but he probably has the fastest game speed of any receiver in this draft. He's also technically refined as a route runner. He gave me shades of Diontae Johnson with his crisp breaks in and out of routes, and he's way faster. His production wasn't where I would have liked it to be for a five-year player, but he's another whose name shows up high on the 'on field market share' lists. In a better offensive environment, Williams might have put up much better production. He was open a lot. If he lands with a QB capable of throwing with anticipation, we might see Williams put up 1,000-yard seasons early in his career. The Chargers are my dream spot for him. Williams can win on the in or outside, in fact, he was almost exclusively used on the outside as a collegiate player. He piled up the sixth-most receiving yards vs. press coverage of any prospect drafted Round 5 or higher since 2017.

WR12 -- Jalen Royals, Utah State

22.6 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

I recently heard JJ Zachariason compare Royals to Rashee Rice, and I can't unsee it. Matt Harmon saw the vision too, and I think that comp makes a ton of sense. Royals found success as a downfield winner at a small school, but his most-impressive film reps came with the ball in his hands. He's a powerful athlete.

Overall, I wasn't quite as into his film as many on X seem to be. I didn't see the same completeness as a route-runner that Williams, Horton, or Noel offer. Maybe he can do more, but I didn't see it. I wonder how his route tree might translate to the pros. Draft capital will tell us a lot about his chances of success. Maybe he's Rice, or maybe he's Jalen Tolbert.

WR13 -- Jack Bech, TCU

22.7 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

If you follow this link, you'll find Jack Bech's splits during his time sharing the field (as a tight end, mostly) with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU. You'll also find a thread with cut-ups of Bech being an absolute dawg after the catch.

Bech has taken an untraditional path to the pros, and his production profile isn't easy to evaluate, as a result. It's not great, to be honest. But his film is close to great. He's one of the cleanest route-runners in the class. He feels like a perfect fit for Sean McVay and the Rams. I wouldn't bet on Bech being Fantasy-relevant in probably three-fourths of NFL offenses, but an ideal fit may accentuate the good parts of his game and allow him to be a productive pro.

WR14 -- KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Auburn

23.2 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

This tier is fun and full of players who probably will never matter for Fantasy football. I would love it if they did, but I don't plan to bet on it with much more than fourth-round rookie picks.

KLS crushed it at Auburn in 2024. His film is so fun. It was his fifth season, and the four before were uninspiring years spent at Penn State. He never topped 2.00 yards per route run in a season as a Nittany Lion before blowing up for a 2.91 rate at Auburn. Lambert-Smith mostly won with athleticism at Auburn, and while his 4.37 40-time is awesome, his vertical and broad jumps were less inspiring. I'm not sure if he'll be dominating at the catch point in the same way as a pro.

This tier of players is one that I'll be closely monitoring during training camp reports and into the preseason. Occasionally, you can find a Jalen Coker type from the Tier 4 receivers.

WR15 -- Isaac TeSlaa, Arkansas

23.6 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Truly, this is the enigma of all enigmas in this class. Move over Luther Burden, we have an even more bizarre slot-bound player to guess at an outcome for. TeSlaa comes in at six-foot-four with ridiculous athleticism -- just look at these comparisons -- and almost no production. His film shows legitimately lightning-quick twitchiness for a six-foot-four route-runner in addition to the obvious long-speed.

The Arkansas offense was rough, and by the time that TeSlaa was incorporated, it centered around Andrew Armstrong. TeSlaa averaged over 2.00 yards per route run in 2024, even with a tiny 14.5% target per route run rate. That's a low rate for a running back! How can we properly evaluate a receiver with such limited opportunities?

All that we have are the traits. They're awesome!

WR16 -- Elijhah Badger, Florida

24 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Badger features both traits and production, so why isn't he higher on this list? Well, he's old, he's a late breakout, and he never produced more than 900 receiving yards in a season. There are reasons for optimism, though, both on film and in his underlying data. He's a fun sleeper! I hope that he doesn't get buried in the draft.

WR17 -- Savion Williams, TCU

23.9 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Watch the clips in this thread, and then come back to this article. I think that you'll then realize the enthusiasm that I have for Badger. It felt like he was ranked too low. But he's ahead of Savion Williams, and I love this dude! Six-foot-four with suddenness, power to break tackles, and the frame to go get balls in the air -- there's a lot to love.

Age, production, and ambiguity with his role are reasons to not let love rule your decision making this draft season. We are engaging in serious business, a rookie Round 3 pick is probably better used responsibly on a Xavier Restrepo type of player. Wouldn't it just be so much fun if Williams was a hit, though?!

WR18 -- Pat Bryant, Illinois

22.8 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Tier 5 offers three players who are more "sure-thing" profiles, that's the primary distinction between Bryant, Armstrong, and Restrepo and the Tier 4 receivers. There's not as much Fantasy upside, but the chances of these players becoming rotational pieces for an NFL offense feel slightly higher. I'd rather swing on upside with a late pick, personally.

Bryant is probably the most underrated real-life prospect at the WR position. He is a good X-receiver. I doubt his skill set is going to be conducive to real-life success, but maybe an organization falls in love in the same way the Packers did with Romeo Doubs. He's young (relative to the class), has the size, and is already a pro-level route-runner.

WR19 -- Andrew Armstrong, Arkansas

24.8 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

Armstrong dominated against the highest level of college competition as a downfield route-winner, so maybe that will translate to the pros. His athletic profile is underwhelming, and he'll be 25 before his rookie season begins. Here's a splash of cold water from JJ Zachariason, regarding Armstrong's outlook.

WR20 -- Xavier Restrepo, Miami

23.5 years old at start of 2025 NFL season

A five-year collegiate career and middling athleticism (we're going based on his tape, not the pro-day testing) aren't encouraging, but if I were to bet on an archetype to circumnavigate those limitations, it would be a hard-nosed slot-bound dawg of a receiver out of the U.

Restrepo produced at a near-elite level of efficiency (2.83 yards per route run) in 2023, which he followed up with a career-high 1,127 receiving yards (2.60 yards per route run) and 11 TDs in 2024. There were explosive plays mixed in, too. This is not a short-area-only target, even if the long-speed is lacking. Restrepo's ability to cut with force while maintaining speed makes him a surprising threat on the vertical plane for any unassuming DB.

If only comparing production data, Restrepo looks pretty good! Of course, there are important qualifiers to consider -- he played in the ACC, and he was a late breakout -- but he put points on the board.

It wouldn't surprise me if an organization falls in love with the motor and precision that Restrepo's 2023-24 film showcased.

Thank you for reading!

If you missed my RB rankings update, you can find those on X.

If you want to watch rookie RB film, check this thread out!

And if you want to hear my thoughts on the rookie TE class, catch this FFT Dynasty podcast with Heath Cummings!

I hope that you enjoy Round 1 of the NFL Draft! I'll be back in your inbox with Round 1 analysis on Friday.