30-day outlook: South American weather will be closely followed into early 2023. Persistent dryness in Argentina is emerging as a greater concern and could provide some price support. Brazil’s conditions have been more favorable for crop development and that country is poised for a sharply stronger production. USDA currently estimates Brazil’s 2022-23 corn production at 126 MMT, up 8.6% from 2021-22. Outside markets such as the U.S. dollar and crude oil may also influence grains. Both turned more bullish for grain prices over the past week, with crude oil surging back above $80 a barrel and the U.S. dollar index dropping to a five-month low.

90-day outlook: Exports and the Ukraine war stand out as two key longer-term price drivers. Continued weakness in U.S. corn export demand indicates lower prices are needed to encourage more sales. Corn export commitments so far in the 2022-23 marketing year are 48.2% behind a year-ago levels, and USDA forecasts a 13% drop in exports for the full year. Mexico has been a relative bright spot, having purchased 9.1 MMT of U.S. corn so far in 2022-23, down 11% from a year ago. But current sales to what were U.S. corn’s No. 2 through No. 5 destinations last year – China, Japan, Canada and Colombia – are down 71% on the year, Reuters reported. With tight ending stocks forecast in 2022-23, corn’s price downside should be relatively limited, but the near-term path is likely lower.