HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

Don’t have a cow. Brazil produces 15 percent of the world’s beef, second only to the United States, and farm exports to the EU are a big draw of the trade deal. Cattle pastures are responsible for the majority of deforestation in the Amazon, and encouraging the beef industry in Brazil — especially given Bolsonaro’s proud climate change denial and brushing off of environmental concerns — is likely to contribute further to the rainforest’s devastation. The EU pledged in 2017 to eliminate deforestation from its agricultural supply chains by 2020, but scientists have since noted that imports from Brazil have fallen short of that commitment.

Or do, but OUR cow. Leaders of France, Belgium, Ireland and Poland sent a letter to the European Commission in June outlining concerns about the sustainability of South American beef farming practices. But that might be a cover: Though it’s couched in the language of fighting climate change, the EU is a big beef producer too (nearly 13 percent of global supply) and many farmers are concerned about the increase in competition, even as manufacturers rejoice in the chance to sell cars without the high tariffs of yore.

Where is the Lorax? While Europe’s insistence that Bolsonaro, 64, keep to the Paris climate goals could curb the Brazilian president’s impulses, deforestation has increased sharply since he came to power. In May, Amazon deforestation surged to a record high: An estimated 47 acres are cleared every hour. Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed concern about Bolsonaro’s record, but didn’t seem inclined to halt talks on the trade deal. "I don't think the non-conclusion of the agreement with Mercosur will mean that a hectare less forest will be felled in Brazil,” she said. The agreement does call for independent evaluation of how countries are keeping to the Paris climate goals, though the mechanism for that hasn’t yet been announced.

Moot points. While prominent Green politicians have denigrated the EU doing business with Bolsonaro, it may not matter after all — and not because of Brazil. Governments on both sides still need to approve the trade deal, which is closely associated with Argentine President Macri, who’s up for reelection this fall. If he doesn’t win, the deal likely will be buried by his opposition, considering the high support for trade protectionism in Argentina.

WHAT TO READ

EU-Mercosur Deal Faces Hurdles on Two Continents, by Ryan Dube, Emre Peker and Jeffrey T. Lewis in The Wall Street Journal
“French President Emmanuel Macron, who had asked the EU to safeguard the bloc’s farmers and climate goals, called the agreement ‘a good one given that the demands we made have all been taken into account.’ “

Can Economic Pressure Curb Jair Bolsonaro’s Anti-Indigenous Agenda? by Sue Branford in Pacific Standard
“Bolsonaro, a former Army captain, currently shows no sign of restraining his strident rhetoric and attempts to conduct policy by fiat in one of the world's largest functioning democracies — not only angering the Congress and the courts, but also confronting one of his most important trading partners.”

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