Folks, here’s the deal. The pendulum has swung, faster than anyone could have imagined, in Biden’s favor: Our exclusive Forecast prediction model, with data firm 0ptimus and election results company Decision Desk HQ, now puts the former veep as the substantial national front-runner to earn a delegate majority (see above) after a dominant Super Tuesday. The next big test? Michigan, where our crunching of polls, demographics, past results, media coverage and more shows Biden topping Sanders by about 10 percentage points. But remember this state gave a shocking shot in the arm to Bernie in 2016 and extended the nomination fight. We currently see Biden padding his delegate lead in the six states voting Tuesday (Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, Washington state, North Dakota, Idaho). But that's not taking into account the news breaking this morning that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is dropping out. It could well boost Sanders, but not all of Warren's voters are Bernie-Bros-in-waiting. Check back to our Forecast page for updates on how this will impact the two men left standing. |