Ukraine moves closer to joining the EU – what does that mean for Europe’s future?

Good morning. Ukraine has been hoping for EU membership for decades, but the prospect of it actually happening only became likely after Russia’s invasion posed an existential threat to Europe for the first time since the second world war. Weeks after the war erupted in February last year, Ukraine and Moldova applied for membership of the EU; in June they were both granted candidate status.

After waiting just under 18 months, the European Commission announced yesterday that it was recommending that formal talks begin on Moldova and Ukraine joining the European Union.

Any country that wants to join the EU must fulfil certain conditions. The commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, applauded the Ukrainians’ pace of reform even as they continue to fight against Russia. She declared that Ukraine had more or less completed all seven clusters of reforms demanded of it last summer, with some “leftovers” needing to be completed in relation to corruption and the rights of minorities including ethnic Hungarian and Romanian communities.

This is a significant moment for Ukraine, but it is also just a first step in a long and meandering process that will take years.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Lisa O’Carroll, the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, about what this says about the potential new era of EU enlargement. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘The EU are doing their damnedest to bring countries into their tight embrace’

In the highly anticipated 1,200 page report, the European Commission recommended formal membership negotiations should begin with Ukraine and Moldova, once they have fulfilled certain reforms relating to corruption, security and their economies. The recommendation comes over a year since the two countries were given candidate status and is a significant step towards western integration for Ukraine, during a time of geopolitical turmoil.

Though this progress is important, it will inevitably take a number of years for Ukraine and Moldova to prove they have been able to introduce and enforce the reforms.

The report also recommended opening accession talks with Bosnia and giving candidate status to Georgia, an important step that would begin its journey to be a member of the EU. The news was celebrated by the Georgian government in Tbilisi, which was deemed to have made sufficient progress on gender equality and organised crime.

Many other countries in the Balkans have been waiting years for a formal seat at the table, and are chagrined at the fact that they have not been given the same treatment as Ukraine and Moldova.

Why the report matters

The commission has “handed Ukraine this massive morale boost at a time of war,” Lisa says while simultaneously making it very clear “that they are doing their damnedest to bring all those countries that want to be in the EU into their tight embrace in the face of Russian aggression”. It is also an indication that Russia is failing to pull those countries into the “former Soviet footprint,” she adds.

The recommendations also mark the start of a process that could lead to the biggest expansion of the EU since 2004 when 10 countries joined: “The prospect of the EU going from a 27-country bloc to a 35-country bloc is very significant. And this is the starting gun on that process,” Lisa says.

What does this all mean for the EU?

The war in Ukraine restarted the discussion around growing the EU. Russia’s invasion completely changed the bloc’s security and energy policies and fuelled von der Leyen’s ambition for it to become a “geopolitical force”.

However, there are significant obstacles to an enlargement process on this scale. There are practical questions that still have not been addressed, Lisa says, including whether countries lose MEP seats to make way for new arrivals or whether the European parliament expands even further. There are more than 70 seats up for grabs since Brexit; Ukraine would be entitled to about 60 on the basis of its population.

There is also still no reform structure that addresses what happens to the EU’s budget, which is already under a lot of pressure, and its institutional framework.

What happens next

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: “This is a strong and historic step that paves the way to a stronger EU with Ukraine as its member.” He said Ukraine will have completed all the necessary steps in two years to start the process of joining. However, Lisa says “a mammoth technical task” lies ahead, which will hamper these ambitions significantly.

To get to this historic juncture, Kyiv met (apart from those “leftovers”) seven conditions covering such things as reforming its judiciary, fighting corruption, rooting out the influence of oligarchs on the economy and justice, guaranteeing the independence of the media, and rights for minorities.

The commission’s recommendation then has to be ratified by national leaders at a summit in December, where they are expected to approve the proposals. There will be a screening process to scope out line by line which laws need to be changed or discarded – a process that could take up to two years. And then a painstaking process will begin of bringing every bit of EU law into the statute books of Ukraine and Moldova.

“This why it takes so long for any country to get to a point where they can join the EU, because it takes years to legislate,” Lisa says.

What else we’ve been reading

• A housing association in Amsterdam is planning to use sewage waste as a reliable heat source for millions of homes. By 2050 the Dutch government aims to be rid of the gas system and solely rely on this new invention. Nyima Jobe, newsletters team

• Suella Braverman has seemingly made it part of her job description to say increasingly incendiary things on every topic from homelessness to the refugee crisis. Rajeev Syal and Rowena Mason have written a great analysis on how this has become the home secretary’s MO. Nimo

• Postpartum depression is too commonly associated only with mothers. But in this moving piece, Miguel Macias writes movingly on his experiences of navigating depression in his new journey of fatherhood. Nyima

• Lois Beckett interviews psychiatrist Dr Paul Appelbaum about why it’s counterproductive and even harmful to blame mass shootings on mental illness. Applebaum challenges the underlying assumptions about connections between mental health and violent risk, and urges politicians to look at other causes of gun violence. Nimo

• The latest TikTok trend taking the app by storm? Going delulu – where, as Alaina Demopoulos explains, users “set wild expectations for yourself – and convince your mind to believe in them”. Nyima

Sport

Football | Manchester United conceded two late goals after playing more than half the match with 10 men after Marcus Rashford’s red card to lose 4-3 to FC Copenhagen and slump to last place in its Champions League group. Bukayo Saka, pictured, set up the first goal before scoring himself to lead Arsenal to a 2-0 win over Sevilla that strengthened the Gunners’ position atop its Champions League group.

Cricket | Jos Buttler has stressed his desire to remain captain in both white-ball formats after a Ben Stokes-inspired win over the Netherlands hauled England from the foot of the World Cup table.

Olympics | Paris 2024 organisers are sticking to their choice of Tahiti’s Teahupo’o site for the Olympics surfing competition despite local opposition amid a dispute over the construction of an aluminium tower that residents say would damage the coral reef.

The front pages

“Starmer fights to control party as shadow ministers threaten to quit” – our Guardian splash today. The Financial Times has “SoftBank paid $1.5bn to WeWork’s banks days before bankruptcy filing”. Much preoccupation with fears of Remembrance Day and the Cenotaph being defiled by protesters this weekend. “PM reads riot act to Met chief” says the Metro and others pick up that line, including the Daily Express: “Rishi warns Met chief: you’ll take blame if protest is violent”. The Daily Mail says “PM tells Met chief: On your head be it”. “Braverman brands Met biased over Gaza march” – that’s the Times. “Where have all the poppies gone?” – the Sun says sellers have abandoned rail stations “amid fears of more pro-Palestine protests”. A different perspective is aired by the i: “Tories accuse home secretary of fuelling UK far-right anger”. “Why?” asks the Daily Mirror about “Another young life taken”, that of Alfie Lewis, 15, by knife crime. Top story in the Daily Telegraph is “AZ to be sued over ‘defective’ vaccine”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

You may have heard of the Swedish concept of “fika” – the practice of taking a mindful break in your day to have coffee and cake and talk about anything other than work – but it turns out Sweden has so many more “stunningly healthy” working culture practices.

As Leah Harper writes in this piece for the Guardian’s Euro visions series on what we can learn from the Swedes, it is apparently normal to get four-week holidays, and there are no obligations to carry out overtime.

Employees also enjoy what is called a wellness allowance, a tax-free payment of £372 a year to spend on whatever is necessary to allow you to relax. Sweden’s working culture mantra is to understand that employees have a life outside of work, and embracing that fact improves productivity.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

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