What’s going on here? UK inflation held steady in August, although higher-than-expected services inflation may have tested the Bank of England’s (BoE’s) nerves. What does this mean? Just as economists had predicted, British consumer prices picked up by 2.2% in August from the same time last year, matching July’s pace. Down on the ground, a few prices were headed in the right direction: folk paid less at hotels, restaurants, and the gas pump. But the same can’t be said for the skies. The price of plane tickets – ahem – took off, wiping out those small wins. In fact, the air travel industry’s runaway costs were enough to push services inflation up to a higher-than-expected 5.6%. Why should I care? For markets: Time to start the rates race. With the headline inflation figure landing just above the BoE’s 2% target, the central bank should be able to follow up August’s interest rate cut – its first since 2020 – with a series of trims. But traders don’t expect the next one to come out of Thursday’s meeting: they’re betting on a 0.25 percentage point cut in November instead, with a high chance of another in December. Those chops can’t come fast enough, with borrowing costs still high enough to drag the country down. Case in point: data out last week showed that the UK economy stalled for the second consecutive month in July, disappointing analysts who had forecast a 0.2% uptick. The bigger picture: The UK has money issues. The British pound has been the best-performing major currency against the US dollar this year. But, as always, there are two sides to the coin. On one hand, the strong pound could help ease inflation by making it cheaper to import commodities, which are priced in dollars. But on the other, it makes the UK’s exports more expensive for international buyers – and if they’re lured away by cheaper currencies, the country’s economy could feel the hit. |