… and we’re back! Even though Buffering has been on hiatus for a few weeks, I’ve actually been pretty busy working on some projects you’ll see rolling out on Vulture and in New York Magazine starting next week. As for this week’s newsletter, read on for a look at why Apple is about to graduate to a new phase of its young existence and some insights into why Seinfeld won’t be shifting to Netflix as soon as it leaves Hulu next week. I am currently baking in the oppressive heat of the desert southwest, but that little quibble aside, here’s to a good summer for us all. Thanks for reading, and don’t forget to check out the TV issue of New York Magazine, on newsstands next week. –Joe Adalian

Reach Joe on Twitter @tvmojoe or email buffering@vulture.com.

Apple TV+ is about to take off the training wheels.

Since the computer giant’s streaming service launched back in November 2019, the company has been wooing potential subscribers by offering them a full year of TV+ for free whenever they bought an iPhone, iPad, or other major piece of hardware. And when the first of those free trials were set to expire last fall, Apple generously decided to extend them — not once, but twice. But now, the days of cheap and easy Apple TV+ are apparently over.

Earlier this week, Apple quietly confirmed it was changing the terms of its free trial. On its website, the company is now telling consumers that as of July 1, buying a new Apple device will only entitle them to three months of TV+ gratis, rather than a whole year. What’s more, the millions of TV+ users who’ve been freeloading off of Tim Cook’s benevolence for so long — like me — will apparently not get another reprieve when those original 2019 free trials run out next month. Apple hasn’t officially said anything, but given how much advance notice the company gave before those previous extensions, it is looking like they won’t be doing so again. If that happens, consumers will finally be forced to decide whether TV+ merits its sticker price of $5 per month.

There’s obviously a risk that TV+ is about to lose a big chunk of its subscriber base. But whatever happens, shortening future trial offers, and ending the ones which were extended, is a strong hint that Cook and his exec team believe their fledgling streamer is ready to start fighting for customers without a safety net. While some analysts scoffed at the extra-long trial period, I think it demonstrated (again) Apple’s willingness to sacrifice short-term revenue for a longer-term play. Fact is, every other major streamer (and most cable networks) built their subscriber base on the back of library shows, and then expanded through originals. Apple knew it couldn’t expect many people to pay for just a handful of unproven titles, so it wisely decided to basically give the service away for free while it let audiences get acclimated to its offering.

But with its two-year anniversary just around the corner, TV+ now has multiple known quantities, and they’re shows many people really like. Ted Lasso is a social-media sensation that could soon turn in a strong Emmy performance, while space drama For All Mankind has a similarly passionate chorus of online enthusiasts and TV critics behind it. The Morning Show, which Apple execs have groomed to be the platform’s signature drama, got a mixed reaction early on — but had many critics singing its praises by the time its first season ended. Comedies Dickinson, Central Park, and Mythic Quest also have passionate fan bases, while industry sources who’ve talked to Apple execs say insiders there insist Jason Mamoa’s See is actually a global hit. Sure, there are still no old movies, and just one old TV series (Fraggle Rock). But the service does now have a decent, if small, content library — of its own originals.

Will this be enough to get people to pay just two dollars less per month than what Disney charges for the ad-supported level of Hulu, a service stuffed with tens of thousands of hours of viewable content? I’ll be honest: I don’t know. And given Apple’s historic insistence on saying virtually nothing about how TV+ is performing, unless or until the company suddenly decides to close the service down — or fire its top execs — we may never fully understand how things are going at the streamer.

That said, I suspect there actually is a core audience for what TV+ is trying to do. At a time when all the other major streamers are falling over each other to add more and more and still more content — even the once-picky HBO brand has been Max’d — there may be an upside to taking a relatively curated approach. You can’t turn on Apple TV+ every night and find something new to watch, but lately, there’s a good chance it will have at least one interesting thing worth checking out every month or so. You also don’t have to worry about scrolling through a million different shows trying to find something to watch, only to quit in frustration a half-hour later.

Also, let’s get real: Apple’s TV slate is modest only by recent industry standards. After just 18 months or so in existence, TV+ currently offers several dozen scripted, unscripted, and kids shows. And based on the regular press releases it sends out, it will be home to a couple dozen more big projects, including some big movies, by the end of 2022. Five or ten years ago, that sort of output would have given TV+ one of the biggest slates in television. As one top agent told me a few weeks ago as I was doing research for another story, “They have all the money in the world, and they spend it to make good stuff. They’re fulfilling their side of the bargain.” With the extended trials about to end, Apple is about to find out if audiences agree.

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It will not be the Summer of George.

As Vulture reported earlier today, Seinfeld — as long expected — is leaving Hulu this month. The legendary show about nothing will vanish from the Disney-owned streamer on June 23, nearly two years after Netflix paid handsomely to steal away global streaming rights. But in what will surely be sad news for stans of the series, Buffering has learned Seinfeld will not simply hop over to its new home the next day, or even the next week. In fact, industry insiders familiar with the situation tell usJerry & Elaine & George & Kramer won’t land on Netflix until closer to the fall — September at the earliest — leaving Seinfeld digitally unhoused until closer to fall. So what’s the deal with the Seinfeld summertime interregnum?

Netflix isn’t talking just yet, so it’s hard to nail down the precise rationale for the delay. In theory, it’s possible the streamer’s deal with distributor Sony Pictures Television, announced in September 2019, doesn’t allow it to take possession of the series for a bit. What seems more likely, however, is that execs have purposely decided to put a bit of space between Seinfeld’s swan song on Hulu and its Netflix debut. If so, there are definite upsides to a pause.

For one, waiting a while gives Netflix time to build an effective marketing campaign around the arrival of Seinfeld as a global streaming exclusive. When The Office left Netflix at the end of December, it immediately moved over to Peacock, which was in desperate need of a big, splashy title to drive sign-ups (or to at least get folks to check it out). But that also meant many of the stories about the show heading to Peacock had to share headline and story space with disgruntled — or at least annoyed — fans of The Office peeved they needed to pay for another streamer to see their show. That narrative was never going to play out with Seinfeld, since the number of Hulu subscribers who don’t also have Netflix is much smaller than Netflix subscribers who don’t get Peacock. Still, waiting ensures the story of Seinfeld streaming on Netflix is about only that.

What’s more, scarcity can often breed demand. (Just look at what happened when folks thought they might not be able to get gas for a week.) It sure seems logical Netflix might want to make folks miss Jerry and the gang just a smidge before bringing it back. But even if Netflix’s thought process doesn’t involve any of my amateur psychological analysis, it could well be that Netflix thinks it can make a bigger splash around Seinfeld in the fall, particularly given how the world is opening back up again and folks are doing stuff other than watching TV. It’s also possible Netflix’s programming schedulers (yes, they have those in streaming) believe some piece of original programming headed to the platform in the fall — perhaps a new stand-up special from Jerry?— might pair well with Seinfeld. 

To be clear, I have no idea what exactly went into Netflix’s decision to delay (though I’ve been sniffing around to find out). But whatever the reason, because of its size and strength, the streamer clearly can afford to wait until it is most beneficial to its programming needs. This is, after all, not just another library series add for Netflix. Stephen Battaglio of the Los Angeles Times, who broke the story of Seinfeld’s defection two years ago, reported at the time Netflix was shelling out more than a half-billion for rights to the show. The company has also been working with Sony to upgrade the series to 4K, something which doesn’t come cheap. And given Netflix has lost Friends and The Office within the last 18 months, Seinfeld gives the service a chance to win back some die-hard sitcom fans who’ve had less reason of late to use the service. I’d be shocked if this was something Netflix simply slipped into it’s monthly “What’s New on Netflix” newsletter without making any fuss. Its recommendation algorithm and homepage are obviously hugely powerful marketing tools, but this is the kind of a show you make a fuss about.

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