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| Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I'm starting to feel like it's 2008 again and not because I still have a bad haircut like I did back then. Fifteen years ago, the Jets worked out a shocking trade with the Packers to acquire a future Hall of Fame quarterback (Brett Favre), and somehow, they might pull off that very same thing this year with Aaron Rodgers. |
| Rodgers to the Jets definitely isn't a done deal, but we'll be taking a look today just how close the trade is to happening. Also, we'll be going over five offseason moves the Cowboys should make, plus, we'll be looking at the possibility of the Dolphins replacing Tua Tagovailoa with Tom Brady or Lamar Jackson. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Aaron Rodgers to the Jets seems to be inching closer to happening |
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| After meeting with Aaron Rodgers for two days in California this week, it seems that the Jets are growing more and more optimistic that a trade for the four-time MVP is actually going to happen. |
| Here's the latest on the situation: |
| Jets owner is on board. One reason Jets owner Woody Johnson flew to California is because he wanted to meet Rodgers before signing off on a trade and it appears that Johnson is now fully on board with getting Rodgers. According to ESPN.com, Johnson "left the meeting excited and satisfied about the potential match."Jets now trying to close the deal. The two things that need to be worked out before a trade can be made is the amount of compensation and whether the Jets will be taking on all of Rodgers' contract. The compensation will be interesting to watch because the Jets likely won't be willing to part with a large amount of draft picks since Rodgers could theoretically retire after just one year. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see the two sides trade a conditional pick that moves way up depending on whether Rodgers is able to lead the Jets to the playoffs (That's what the Jets did when they traded for Brett Favre in 2008 and a similar deal would definitely make some sense). Biggest remaining hurdle. Rodgers, who hasn't spoken publicly in nearly two weeks, could throw a wrench into this entire thing by announcing that he's going to retire, but that seems unlikely. According to NFL.com, the major hurdle still standing in the way is whether Rodgers actually wants to play for the Jets. At this point, no one knows what Rodgers wants to do. If he signs off on being dealt, then a trade could happen quickly. Rodgers' contract will likely need to be restructured. One other issue in negotiations is that Woody Johnson "would prefer" not to pay Rodgers the full $59.5 million that the QB is owed for 2023, according to The Athletic. To fix this issue, the Packers could agree to pay some of it or the Jets could ask Rodgers to restructure his deal. Also, the Jets will need to clear up some cap space to sign Rodgers, and they started making some room on Thursday by releasing Braxton Berrios in a move that will free up $5 million. |
| The bottom line here is that if Rodgers gives his approval, the Jets and Packers only need to iron out a few more things before a trade can happen and it's starting to feel like those issues will be ironed out soon, which means we could see a Rodgers trade happen before the end of the week (or maybe even before the end of THE DAY). |
| It's interesting that the Jets have decided to go all-in on Rodgers even though Lamar Jackson is out there, but the Jets are the Jets and they're going to do Jets things. |
| Also, it seems like the general public absolutely thinks this trade is going to happen because Super Bowl bets on the Jets have been sky-rocketing over the past two days. The Jets, who haven't even MADE THE PLAYOFFS since 2010, are currently a hot Super Bowl bet and you can read all about it here. |
| By the way, the Jets did agree to a trade today, but it didn't involve Aaron Rodgers. According to ESPN.com, the Ravens are sending safety Chuck Clark to the Jets in exchange for a 2024 seventh-round pick. Clark had been a full-time starter for the Ravens since 2019. |
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| 2. Free agent fits for each AFC team |
| With the start of free agency coming in just six days, we're going to be cramming as many free agency stories into the newsletter between now and then. Today, we had Jeff Kerr go through every team in the AFC to find the best free agency fits. |
| Basically, Kerr went through the 16 teams in the conference and pinpointed one free agent that each team should target. Here's his advice for three of those teams: |
| Chiefs: Brandon Graham. "After allowing Frank Clark to walk, the Chiefs are going to have to great creative at finding efficient options to get to the quarterback. Why not unite Graham with the head coach who drafted him in Philadelphia? Graham is coming off a huge season at 34, having 11 sacks with 48 pressures."Dolphins: Miles Sanders. "With Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson set to hit free agency, the Dolphins could use stability at running back. Enter Sanders, who is arguably the top back on the market now that most of the top players at his position -- like Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley -- got franchise tagged."Steelers: Orlando Brown Jr. "This is the AFC franchise that must protect its young quarterback, needing a massive upgrade at tackle in order to get the best out of Kenny Pickett. Enter Brown, the premier left tackle available in free agency." |
| To check out the rest of our free agency fits for each AFC team, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Five moves the Cowboys should make this offseason |
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| With less than a week to go until the start of free agency, the Dallas Cowboys currently have one of the ugliest cap situations in the NFL. According to overthecap.com, the Cowboys are currently $16 million over the cap, which is the fifth-worst number in the NFL. |
| With that in mind, Jared Dubin put on his general manager hat and decided to help the Cowboys by coming up with a few moves they should make this offseason, and he started with a big one. |
| 1. Cut Ezekiel Elliott. "This needs to happen, and it needs to be a clean break. No pay cuts, no reduced role. It's not even really a decision the Cowboys made for themselves; Elliott made it for them with his play. If the Cowboys cut him right away, they can save $4,860,000; if they designate him as a post-June 1 release, they can save $10,900,000 - which would more than pay for the franchise tag they just used on Tony Pollard." |
| 2. Add explosive receivers for Dak. "Yes, they have CeeDee Lamb, but the team's second-best wide receiver last season was clearly Noah Brown, a career special-teamer whose 43 catches for 555 yards and three scores all topped what he had accumulated in his first four seasons combined. That is not the way to help your quarterback. Get Dak some help." |
| 3. Fortify the cornerback room. "Season-ending injuries to both Jourdan Lewis (Lisfranc) and Anthony Brown (Achilles) torpedoed Dallas' cornerback depth and they ended up spending most of the second half of the year rotating through candidates for the third cornerback spot. The Cowboys need to add bodies here, first and foremost, and they probably need to add a starter. I'd expect them to use one of their Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks on a corner — and they should." |
| If you want to check out all five of Dubin's suggestions for the Cowboys, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Let the Dolphins speculation begin: Could Lamar Jackson or Tom Brady end up in Miami? |
| After getting hit with the non-exclusive franchise tag on Tuesday, Lamar Jackson will be free to negotiate with almost any NFL team when the legal tampering period starts at noon on March 13. The reason I say "almost any" NFL team is because not every team is allowed to negotiate with him just yet. |
| If a team wants to sign Jackson to an offer sheet, it has to be able to give the Ravens a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 first-round pick. As it turns out, though, there are five teams that don't have a 2023 first-round pick, which means they can't negotiate with Jackson until April 30 when the draft is over. |
| Those five teams are: |
| Dolphins49ersBroncosBrownsRams |
| The bottom three teams have absolutely no need for Jackson, so let's forget about them for a second. The 49ers need a QB, but they likely aren't going to be in the market for a guy who costs $50 million per year, which means the most interesting team on this list is the Dolphins. |
| According to ESPN.com, the Dolphins aren't interested in Lamar, but let's be honest, that's exactly what you would say if you're the Dolphins. It wouldn't make any sense for the Dolphins to say they're interested because Jackson might not be available on April 30 when they would be allowed to negotiate with him. If the Dolphins say they want Lamar, that would undermine Tua Tagovailoa, who played some of his worst football in 2021 while the Deshaun Watson trade speculation was happening. |
| Basically, if the Dolphins were interested in Jackson, they would want to keep it to themselves for as long as possible. |
| As for Brady, former NFL quarterback Scott Zolak, who currently works for the Patriots broadcasting team, thinks the seven-time Super Bowl winner might come out of retirement and he might do it to play for the Dolphins. |
| "Brady may go to Miami. I think that's in play, I do. I think the possibility of him coming out of retirement is definitely 100% in play," Zolak said Wednesday, via NBC Sports Boston. "You can sit there and look at the kitten tweet from yesterday, don't buy that." |
| CBS Sports NFL Insider Josina Anderson recently reported that the Dolphins would be exploring all options at quarterback this offseason and looking into Brady or Jackson would definitely qualify as looking into "All options." |
| 5. 50 things to know about the NFL Draft |
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| As of yesterday, the NFL Draft is officially 50 days away, so we decided to honor that fact by coming up with 50 things that you need to know about this year's draft. I would list all 50 here, but it would take you seven hours to read, so I'm only going to list the 10 most fascinating ones. |
1. The Bears have the first overall pick for the first time since 1947.
2. C.J. Stroud could become the first Big Ten QB drafted in the top 10 since Kerry Collins (Penn State) in 1995.
3. We should see history at the top of the draft. While Super Bowl LVII was the first matchup between Black starting QBs in Super Bowl history, the 2023 NFL Draft could be the first time in draft history that Black quarterbacks are the first two overall picks.
4. There are four quarterbacks who could go in the top 10 and if that happens, it will mark just the second time in the common draft era that four quarterbacks have gone that high, tying 2018.
5. Will Levis could become just the fifth QB since 2000 to be drafted in the first round after throwing at least 25 interceptions in college and fewer than 50 TD passes (Levis would join: Vince Young, Josh Freeman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel).
6. The NFC South is in the midst of a historic QB makeover and there could be more changes coming in the draft. This will be the second division in NFL history to feature all different Week 1 starting quaterbacks from the prior season, joining the 1973 AFC West.
7. Don't completely write off drafting a running back early. The top six rushing yards leaders in 2022 were all first- or second-round picks.
8. The Eagles are the first team with a top-10 pick after reaching the Super Bowl since the 2007 Patriots (They drafted Jerod Mayo in 2008).
9. Five teams -- Dolphins, 49ers, Broncos, Browns and Rams -- do not have a first-round selection in 2023.
10. In news that might surprise you, Alabama has never had a player go No. 1 overall in the common draft era, which started in 1967. That could change this year if Bryce Young goes with the top pick. |
| If you want to check out the rest of the list, which was put together by CBSSports.com's Doug Clawson, then be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Calvin Ridley admits that he F'd up |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Calvin Ridley offers apology. The Jaguars receiver apologized for his NFL suspension on Wednesday in a lengthy piece that he wrote for The Players Tribune . The apology was surprisingly candid and it's definitely worth reading. Ridley explained why he gambled (he was in a dark spot after the Falcons misdiagnosed an injury) and he said he plans to rack up at least 1,400 receiving yards with the Jaguars this year. Kyler Murray gets called out by Cardinals offensive lineman. After three years of blocking for Kyler Murray, Kelvin Beachum is likely leaving Arizona in free agency and he has some advice for the QB on his way out of town: Grow up a little bit. "I just think he needs to grow up a little bit," Beachum said. "I think if he has the ability and willingness to grow up, he's going to be just fine." You can read his full comments here. Chargers clear some serious cap space. The Chargers freed up some serious cap space this week by restructuring the contracts of both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Thanks to the restructured deals, the Chargers have now created nearly $14.5 million in cap room. Jaguars and Cardinals make cost-cutting moves. Speaking of freeing up cap space, the Jaguars and Cardinals both did that on Wednesday. The Jags cut Shaq Griffin in a move that will save them $13.1 million in salary cap space while the Cardinals freed up $12 million by releasing Chosen Robbie Anderson. Cowboys working to restructure Tyron Smith's contract. The Cowboys are currently $16 million over the salary cap and one way to quickly fix that would be to restructure Tyron Smith's contract, and according to ESPN.com, that's exactly what the team plans on doing. The Cowboys could save $9.6 million by cutting Smith, but it doesn't sound like they plan on going that route. |
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