By Michael Shepherd - June 22, 2023
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up.

With a huge vote coming, an abortion bill faces fraught politics and a potential twist. Anti-abortion advocates have stuck around in the State House over the past two weeks, expecting the Democratic-led Legislature to call a quick vote on Gov. Janet Mills' signature abortion-rights bill. It is now set for Thursday votes after being placed on the House calendar overnight.

Expect a huge crowd of demonstrators in the hallways and a massive floor fight from Republicans who are armed with testimony from hundreds of opponents who jammed the State House for an unprecedented all-night hearing on the measure in May. But they cannot defeat the bill, which would allow doctors to perform abortions after the current viability cutoff, on their own.

This is where things are getting interesting. There was a sense among those on the abortion-rights and anti-abortion sides on Wednesday that the bill's fate was somewhat intertwined with a tribal-rights push from House Speaker Rachel Talbot Ross, D-Portland.She is sponsoring the abortion bill for Mills, but the governor is opposed to the tribal measure that went to her desk late Wednesday.

That makes a veto likely. Talbot Ross was able to lock down the two-thirds support needed in both chambers to override a veto, but the House only just barely cleared that mark. If Mills does indeed use her pen, the vote on overriding a veto will be a pressure cooker for some of the 21 Republicans who broke with most of their caucus to support the tribal-rights bill.

That measure is Talbot Ross' biggest priority. Republicans would like nothing more than to defeat the abortion bill, which was only put on the schedule after the tribal-rights bill passed. But Democrats have seemingly had the votes to pass it all along. When the bill text was unveiled in February, they had enough Democratic co-sponsors to pass it outright assuming every position held.

There are some questions on the Democratic side: Seven of them did not sign on, and some have cited a range of reasons but also have not ruled out supporting the bill on the floor. At the same time, Carroll Conley, the executive director of the Christian Civic League of Maine, has questioned whether Democrats have the votes.

That has seemed like a hopeful case, and there are anti-abortion Republicans who are not so optimistic. Conley's group sent an alert to bill opponents on Thursday calling them to Augusta and specifically naming Lewiston, Auburn, Brewer, Harrison, Bridgton, Bucksport, Penobscot, Calais, and Scarborough as places that lawmakers need to hear from. It previews their strategy.

If Talbot Ross and Democrats pass the abortion measure today and need help overriding a Mills veto sometime in the next two weeks, things might change for Republicans on tribal rights. A major historic issue for tribes hangs in the balance. Watch this closely.