Folks, do you feel that? We're getting closer and closer to the end of the year. And that means we're on the cusp of closing one of the strongest years in the S&P 500 Index since the 1990s. The broad market is up a whopping 27% this year.
'Act 2' of This Bull Market Is Just Getting Started
By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics
Folks, do you feel that?
We're getting closer and closer to the end of the year. And that means we're on the cusp of closing one of the strongest years in the S&P 500 Index since the 1990s. The broad market is up a whopping 27% this year.
After the choppiness over the summer, tech stocks have regained their footing. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index is up more than 30% in 2024.
Consumer spending is strong, too...
I must admit, I thought we might be in for a slow holiday season. Earlier this month, I explained this in detail after my own Black Friday shopping excursion.
But the numbers are in. Overall spending on Black Friday grew by roughly 3.4% year over year. The shopping holiday was a hit – especially online.
Put simply, the market has had a massive year. And I don't blame you if you you're tempted to think that it's over.
But "Act 2" of this bull market looks like it's starting...
Yes, the election results are in. But the stock market story is just beginning. So says Marc Chaikin — a Wall Street "living legend" who has traded through 13 presidential elections. Chaikin warns that if you have any money in U.S. stocks, this is a story you cannot miss. Get the full details here.
Famous investors are plowing billions of dollars into a new technology that could generate more wealth than AI and alter the fate of Silicon Valley. Yet far too few investors know about it. Fortunately, one expert just went public with the details, including at least five stocks to put on your radar immediately.
So, we all know this market is running hot. But you've probably also noticed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is bent on lowering rates at least one more time.
You've likely seen headlines like this one from CNBC yesterday circulating...
Folks, this is how we know Act 2 is here. Despite the incredibly hot year in the market, we haven't reached euphoria yet.
You might think we don't consider sentiment at Chaikin Analytics. After all, the market provides us with a mountain of hard data.
But Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin built sentiment measures into the Power Gauge itself. Estimate trends, analyst ratings, and short interest all measure how people "feel."
Here's an example of what the breakdown in the Experts category looks like in the Power Gauge for a stock...
When it comes to individual stocks, we're looking for "bullish" sentiment on these factors. But when we're talking about the broad market, things are a little different...
We know the market is running hot. But we also know that we're not at a euphoric peak.
The unemployment rate has ticked up to roughly 4.2%. And the Fed's bias toward rate cuts tells us that it's concerned about high rates choking the market.
We also find that consumers aren't overly jubilant, either. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey reveals that consumers are simply feeling "middle of the road" right now.
Interestingly, consumer sentiment hit a peak in February 2020. And like you would expect, it cratered as the COVID-19 pandemic played out.
But it didn't bottom until June 2022. That's when the "tech wreck" that year made it seem like the market had finally given up.
Now, we're at a healthy midpoint. And that's exactly what we want to see heading into 2025.
It means that the bull market is ready for Act 2. It also dovetails perfectly with Marc's outlook for the coming year...
In a special presentation yesterday, Marc unveiled his broad outline for 2025. He also discussed where he thinks the hottest stocks in the market are hiding.
And that's not all. Marc also shared the name and ticker of two specific stocks. One is an "avoid at all costs" name... and the other is one that he recommends buying right away.
So, we're all getting ready for the holidays. But remember, the market is always on the move...
Act 2 of this bull market is just getting started. And to get the full story on how Marc thinks it will unfold, check out his special presentation right here.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.65%
9
11
10
S&P 500
-0.44%
97
244
156
Nasdaq
-0.45%
28
45
27
Small Caps
-1.47%
543
965
398
Bonds
+0.24%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks are somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Discretionary
+3.01%
Information Technology
+1.71%
Communication
+0.24%
Financial
-1.21%
Staples
-1.42%
Real Estate
-1.69%
Utilities
-1.82%
Industrials
-1.95%
Materials
-3.3%
Health Care
-3.39%
Energy
-4.03%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas Equipment Services
2
10
18
Over the past 6 months, the Oil & Gas Equipment Services subsector (XES) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -19.29%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #19 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 11 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
CHX
ChampionX Corporatio
CLB
Core Laboratories In
HAL
Halliburton Company
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
PFE
+4.67%
FOXA
+4.27%
FOX
+4.08%
TSLA
+3.64%
BMY
+3.19%
Losers
HUM
-10.2%
AMTM
-9.55%
CVS
-5.49%
APA
-4.06%
AVGO
-3.91%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
JBL
LEN, MU
GIS
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
No significant Earnings Surprises in the Russell 3000.
* * * *
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