Dollar Down But Not Out Yet as CPI Awaited
| Action Insight Daily Report 1-12-23 |
Dollar Down But Not Out Yet as CPI Awaited |
At this point so far, Euro is the strongest one for the week, while Swiss Franc is the weakest, thanks to the upside breakout and rally yesterday. Dollar is more on the soft side too but there is still no clear follow through selling after the decline on Monday. Apparently, traders are still holding their bets, and await today's US consumer inflation data. Clear deceleration in both headline and core CPI is expected, which should give a nod to a smaller 25bps hike by Fed in February. Technically, following up on GBP/CHF, after yesterday's rise, corrective pattern from 1.1574 should have completed with three waves to 1.1094. Further rally is now expected as long as 1.1180 support holds. Retest of 1.1543/74 resistance zone should be seen next. With EUR/GBP struggling to break through 0.8876 resistance firmly, current moves in European majors are more about Swiss Franc's own weakness. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.05%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.30%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.16%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.45%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0039 at 0.510. Overnight, DOW rose 0.80%. S&P 500 rose 1.28%. NASDAQ rose 1.76%. 10-year yield dropped -0.067 to 3.554. |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0730; (P) 1.0753; (R1) 1.0780; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside despite some loss of upside momentum. Current rally from 0.9534 would target 61.8% projection of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 at 1.1164. On the downside, below 1.0711 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0482 support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 21:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Nov | 7.00% | -10.70% | | 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Y/Y Dec | 2.70% | 2.80% | 2.70% | | 23:50 | JPY | Current Account (JPY) Nov | 1.92T | 0.65T | -0.61T | | 00:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Nov | 13.20B | 11.30B | 12.22B | 12.74B | | 01:30 | CNY | CPI Y/Y Dec | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.60% | | 01:30 | CNY | PPI Y/Y Dec | -0.70% | -0.10% | -1.30% | | 05:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current Dec | 47.9 | 47.8 | 48.1 | | 09:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 6) | 210K | 204K | | 13:30 | USD | CPI M/M Dec | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Dec | 6.50% | 7.10% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Dec | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Dec | 5.70% | 6.00% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -15B | -221B |
|
|
|
