Canadian Dollar Dives as Trump Confirms Tariffs, Gold Soars to Record High

Action Insight Daily Report 1-31-25

Canadian Dollar Dives as Trump Confirms Tariffs, Gold Soars to Record High

Canadian Dollar spiked lower after US President Donald Trump confirmed his plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect this Saturday on February 1. Trump justified the decision by citing concerns over migration, drug trafficking, and economic imbalances. However, uncertainty remains regarding whether oil imports will be affected. While the move was not entirely unexpected, the confirmation added pressure to the Loonie as markets assessed the impact on trade, inflation and growth.

In contrast, Trump’s stance on China remains less definitive. While he also mentioned potential tariffs on China due to ongoing fentanyl concerns, he stopped short of detailing any immediate action. This leaves the possibility of further trade disruptions on the horizon, though no concrete measures have been announced yet.

Despite the tariff headlines, Loonie remains middle-of-the-pack in weekly performance. Aussie and Kiwi continue to struggle, along with Euro. Yen leads the market, additionally supported by stronger Tokyo inflation data, followed by the Dollar. British Pound has climbed higher, benefiting from Euro weakness, while Swiss Franc is trading mix....

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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4390; (P) 1.4493; (R1) 1.4593; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.4516 resistance indicates resumption of larger rally. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4667/89 key resistance zone. Strong resistance might be seen there to limit upside on first attempt. But break of 1.4260 support is needed to confirm short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat. Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jan 3.40% 3.00%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan 2.50% 2.50% 2.40%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Jan 1.90% 1.80%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Dec 2.40% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Dec P 0.30% 0.30% -2.20%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Dec 3.70% 2.90% 2.80%
00:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.90% 1.00%
00:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q4 3.70% 3.90%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Dec -2.50% -3.40% -1.80%
07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Dec -1.60% -0.20% -0.60% 0.00%
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 2.60% 0.60% 0.80% 1.40%
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Dec 11K 14K 10K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Dec 6.20% 6.20% 6.10%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Jan P 0.10% 0.50%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jan P 2.60% 2.60%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Nov -0.10% 0.30%
13:30 USD Personal Income M/M Dec 0.40% 0.30%
13:30 USD Personal Spending M/M Dec 0.50% 0.40%
13:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Dec 0.30% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Dec 2.60% 2.40%
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Dec 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Dec 2.80% 2.80%
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q4 1.00% 0.80%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Jan 39.9 36.9