Yen Weakens Despite Risk-Off Sentiment,Jobs and Inflation Data to Drive Markets Ahead

Action Insight Daily Report 1-6-25

Yen Weakens Despite Risk-Off Sentiment,Jobs and Inflation Data to Drive Markets Ahead

Yen struggles today even as risk aversion set the tone across Asian markets. Nikkei extended its retreat after briefly breaching 40k psychological level last week, as the rally proved unsustainable for investors. Adding to Yen's woes, December PMI Services data highlighted only marginal growth, failing to provide a meaningful lift to the broader economy. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated a cautious stance, offering no concrete hints about a rate hike this month. Last week’s recovery in Yen may turn out to be fleeting.

Elsewhere, commodity currencies emerge as the strongest performers today so far, extending their resilience from last week. However, their gains lack significant momentum, reflecting market caution. Meanwhile, Euro and Sterling are trading in a mixed manner, stabilizing after last week’s sharp losses. Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc are lagging behind, with Yen as the weakest performer.

Markets are bracing for a critical week ahead, with a slew of high-impact economic data on the docket. US Non-Farm payrolls and ISM services data will likely set the tone for the Dollar, particularly as markets remain firmly priced for Fed to pause its easing cycle this month. Inflation data from the Eurozone, Switzerland, and Australia will also attract attention, shaping the narrative around ECB, SNB, and RBA policies. Additionally, Canadian employment data will test the resilience of Loonie, which outperformed other commodity currencies last month but has recently shown signs of waning momentum....

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.83; (P) 195.19; (R1) 195.74; More...

GBP/JPY recovers notably today but stays in range below 198.94 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 180.00 is still extending. Further rise is in favor with 194.04 minor support intact. On the upside, above 199.79 will will target channel resistance (now at 203.90). However, firm break of 194.04 will turn bias to the downside for 188.07 support instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 JPY Services PMI Dec F 50.9 51.4 51.4
01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Dec 52.2 51.7 51.5
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Nov 0.80% 1.20% 1.40% 1.50%
08:50 EUR France Services PMI Dec F 48.2 48.2
08:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Dec F 51 51
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Dec F 51.4 51.4
09:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jan -17.1 -17.5
09:30 GBP Services PMI Dec F 51.4 51.4
13:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Dec P 0.40% -0.20%
13:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Dec P 2.40% 2.20%
14:45 USD Services PMI Dec F 58.5 58.5
15:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Nov -0.30% 0.20%