Yen Rebounds on Steep Selloff in Stocks, ISM and PCE in Focus
Action Insight Daily Report 10-1-21

Yen Rebounds on Steep Selloff in Stocks, ISM and PCE in Focus

Yen recovered much ground as US stocks tumbled steeply overnight. Meanwhile, Dollar remains generally firm, as partly supported by resilient treasury yields. Selling in Euro and Sterling slowed a little bit while commodity currencies are turning softer. ISM manufacturing and PCE inflation will come into spotlight today. But overall directions in the currency markets will remain largely driven by stocks and yields.

Technically, Yen crosses will be the focuses today. In particular, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are heading back to127.91 and 148.93 support respectively. Sustained break there could reaffirm overnight risk-off developments in stock markets. That, if happens could set the tone for the initial part of October.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down sharply by -2.52%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.017 at 0.053. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.15%. China and Hong Kong are on holiday. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.59%. S&P 500 dropped -1.19%. NASDAQ dropped -0.44%. 10-year yield dropped -0.012 to 1.529.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.47; (P) 150.22; (R1) 150.62; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for retesting 149.03 key support level. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implications. Deeper fall would be seen towards 143.78 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 150.92 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 152.54 resistance instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q3 18 13 14
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3 14 15 13
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 2 0 1
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3 3 5 3
23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3 10.10% 9.10% 9.60%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Aug 2.80% 2.90% 2.80%
23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Sep F 51.5 51.2 51.2
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Sep 38.9 36.7
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Aug 1.60% -5.10%
07:30 CHF SVME PMI Sep 65.6 67.7
07:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Sep 60.1 60.9
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Sep F 55.2 55.2
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep F 58.5 58.5
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep F 58.7 58.7
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Sep F 56.3 56.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep P 3.30% 3.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Sep P 1.80% 1.60%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jul -0.20% 0.70%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Aug 0.20% 1.10%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Aug 0.70% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Aug 0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug 4.20%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Aug 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug 3.60%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Sep 57.2
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI SepF 60.2 60.5
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Sep 71 71
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep 59.9 59.9
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Sep 83.8 79.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Sep 49
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Aug 0.30% 0.30%