Sterling Slides on Budget Fallout; US Stocks Tumble Ahead of NFP

Action Insight Daily Report 11-1-24

Sterling Slides on Budget Fallout; US Stocks Tumble Ahead of NFP

Sterling has faced significant selling pressure as markets reacted negatively to the Labour government's budget announcement. Some analysts draw comparisons to the free fall following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's mini-budget two years ago. Yet, the current selloff is notably milder. The focus now is on whether Sterling can stabilize in the coming days or if further downside looms. Aussie is also underperforming, ranking as the second weakest currency this week after Sterling, while Loonie is the third weakest.

Conversely, Euro is maintaining its position as the week’s strongest performer, bolstered by better-than-expected GDP growth and inflation data. These robust figures have reduced the urgency for ECB to accelerate its rate-cutting cycle, allowing for a steadier monetary policy approach. Swiss Franc is the second strongest currency, benefiting from safe-haven flows and buying interest against Sterling. Kiwi dollar ranks third in strength, supported by the selloff in Aussie, which sometimes affects investor sentiment toward its regional counterpart.

Dollar and Yen are trading in mixed fashion, occupying middle positions among major currencies. Market are now turning their attention to today's non-farm payroll report in the US, which could influence the greenback's short-term direction. However, the medium-term trend for Dollar is to be shaped by the upcoming presidential election next week....

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2830; (P) 1.2915; (R1) 1.2984; More...

GBP/USD's decline from 1.3433 resumed by breaking through 1.2906 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.2298 key support level next. On the upside, break of 1.3042 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Sep 2.60% -5.30% -5.20%
00:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q3 0.90% 0.70% 1.00%
00:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q3 3.90% 4.80%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Oct F 49.2 49 49
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.3 49.5 49.3
07:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 2.50% 3.20%
07:30 CHF CPI M/M Oct 0.00% -0.30%
07:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Oct 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Oct 49.5 49.9
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Oct F 50.3 50.3
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 106K 254K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Oct 4.10% 4.10%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Oct 0.30% 0.40%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.4
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Oct F 47.8 47.8
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct 47.6 47.2
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Oct 48.3
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Oct 43.9
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Sep 0.00% -0.10%