Dollar Softens as FOMC Awaited, Yen Firms Up

Action Insight Daily Report 11-2-22

Dollar Softens as FOMC Awaited, Yen Firms Up

Dollar is trading mildly lower in Asian session today, but manages to maintain most of this week's gain so far. The greenback will look into today's FOMC rate decision, where a 75bps hike is well priced in. Today's Fed meeting is not about today, but how Chair Jerome Powell would indicate the rate path ahead. Meanwhile, Yen is trading broadly higher as supported by comment from Japanese official that even gradual depreciation in exchange rate is now a concern. Overall, most major pairs and crosses are stuck inside last week's range, with the exception of Kiwi.

Technically, some focuses will be on 0.9847 minor support in EUR/USD and 1.0030 minor resistance in USD/CHF. Break of these levels will argue that Dollar's near term pull back is finished, which set the stage for more upside in the greenback, at least until Friday's non-farm payrolls.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.11%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.74%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.88%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0026 at 0.255. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.24%> S&P 500 dropped -0.41%. NASDAQ dropped -0.89%. 10-year yield dropped -0.025 to 4.052, after dipping to 3.920.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9937; (P) 0.9980; (R1) 1.0044; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.0030 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.0146 has completed at 0.9840. Bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.0146. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.0283 projection level. However, break of 0.9840 support will now be a sign of reversal, and bring deeper decline back to 0.9779 support instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index Oct 49.6 50.2
21:45 NZD Employment Change Q3 1.30% 0.50% 0.00%
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q3 3.30% 3.20% 3.30%
21:45 NZD Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q3 1.10% 1.00% 1.30%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct -6.90% -2.00% -3.30%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep 6.60% 5.50% 5.70%
00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Sep -5.80% -9.00% 28.10% 23.10%
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 0.5B 1.2B
08:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct 46.9 48.3
08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Oct F 47.4 47.4
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct 15K 14K
08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F 45.7 45.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct 46.6 46.6
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 198K 208K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.2M 2.6M
18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 3.25%
18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference