Dollar Softens as FOMC Awaited, Yen Firms Up
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-2-22 |
Dollar Softens as FOMC Awaited, Yen Firms Up |
Dollar is trading mildly lower in Asian session today, but manages to maintain most of this week's gain so far. The greenback will look into today's FOMC rate decision, where a 75bps hike is well priced in. Today's Fed meeting is not about today, but how Chair Jerome Powell would indicate the rate path ahead. Meanwhile, Yen is trading broadly higher as supported by comment from Japanese official that even gradual depreciation in exchange rate is now a concern. Overall, most major pairs and crosses are stuck inside last week's range, with the exception of Kiwi. Technically, some focuses will be on 0.9847 minor support in EUR/USD and 1.0030 minor resistance in USD/CHF. Break of these levels will argue that Dollar's near term pull back is finished, which set the stage for more upside in the greenback, at least until Friday's non-farm payrolls. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.11%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.74%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.88%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0026 at 0.255. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.24%> S&P 500 dropped -0.41%. NASDAQ dropped -0.89%. 10-year yield dropped -0.025 to 4.052, after dipping to 3.920. |
USD/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9937; (P) 0.9980; (R1) 1.0044; More... Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.0030 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.0146 has completed at 0.9840. Bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.0146. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 1.0283 projection level. However, break of 0.9840 support will now be a sign of reversal, and bring deeper decline back to 0.9779 support instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | AUD | AiG Performance of Mfg Index Oct | 49.6 | 50.2 | | 21:45 | NZD | Employment Change Q3 | 1.30% | 0.50% | 0.00% | | 21:45 | NZD | Unemployment Rate Q3 | 3.30% | 3.20% | 3.30% | | 21:45 | NZD | Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q3 | 1.10% | 1.00% | 1.30% | | 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base Y/Y Oct | -6.90% | -2.00% | -3.30% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | | 00:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep | 6.60% | 5.50% | 5.70% | | 00:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Sep | -5.80% | -9.00% | 28.10% | 23.10% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep | 0.5B | 1.2B | | 08:45 | EUR | Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct | 46.9 | 48.3 | | 08:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Oct F | 47.4 | 47.4 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Oct | 15K | 14K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F | 45.7 | 45.7 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct | 46.6 | 46.6 | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Oct | 198K | 208K | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.2M | 2.6M | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.00% | 3.25% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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