Fed's Dovish Tone Pressures Dollar and Yields, RBNZ's Hawkishness Lifts Kiwi
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-29-23 |
Fed's Dovish Tone Pressures Dollar and Yields, RBNZ's Hawkishness Lifts Kiwi |
Dollar's decline finally takes off again overnight, following dovish comments from some Fed officials. In particular, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, typically known for his hawkish views, softened his stance and expressed a level of satisfaction with the current interest rate policy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's even raised concerns about the risks of maintaining overly restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, maintaining a hawkish stance, was the only one expecting another rate hike. One significant technical development to note is that 10-year yield is now pressing an important fibonacci level of 38.2% retracement of 3.253 to 4.997 at 4.330. Sustained break of this level would open up deeper decline through 4% handle to 61.8% retracement at 3.919. This development, if realized, would exert additional broad based pressure on the greenback... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.92; (P) 147.87; (R1) 148.43; More... USD/JPY's decline continues today and break of 147.14 support confirms resumption of whole fall from 151.89. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 151.89 to 147.14 from 149.66 at 146.72 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.91, which is close to 145.06 key resistance turned support. On the upside, above 147.70 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.66 resistance holds. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Oct | 4.90% | 5.20% | 5.60% | | 01:00 | NZD | RBNZ Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price M/M Oct | 0.10% | 1.60% | | 09:00 | CHF | Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Nov | -37.8 | | 09:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Oct | -0.20% | -1.10% | | 09:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Oct | 44K | 43K | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Nov | 93.7 | 93.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov | -9.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Nov | 4.5 | | 10:00 | EUR | Consumer Confidence Nov F | -16.9 | -16.9 | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Nov P | -0.10% | 0% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Nov P | 3.50% | 3.80% | | 13:30 | CAD | Current Account (CAD) Q3 | 0.7B | -6.6B | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 5.00% | 4.90% | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 3.50% | 3.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Oct P | -86.7B | -86.8B | | 13:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Oct P | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.1M | 8.7M | | 19:00 | USD | Fed's Beige Book |
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