Yen resumed its broad-based rally during the Asian session, lifted by stronger-than-expected Tokyo inflation data. The accelerated inflation figures have reignited market speculation about another rate hike by BoJ as early as December. Overnight index swaps now suggest there is over 60% probability of a 25bps increase at this upcoming meeting. A key highlight from the inflation report is the continued uptick in services inflation, indicating that price pressures are becoming more entrenched in the domestic economy. The rise in core-core CPI also signaled that underlying inflation is gaining momentum beyond volatile food and energy prices. However, the less-than-stellar retail sales growth raises questions about the robustness of domestic demand. This softness in retail activity may temper BoJ's urgency to act immediately, as policymakers might seek more concrete evidence of sustained demand-pull inflation before making a policy shift. Nevertheless, a recent Bloomberg poll showed that over 80% of economists surveyed expect BoJ to adjust its policy by January. Similarly, a Reuters survey showed that 90% of economists anticipate an increase in the policy rate from the current 0.25% to 0.50% by the end of March. This widespread expectation suggests that while the exact timing remains uncertain, a rate hike is likely to occur within the next few months..... |