Action Insight Daily Report 11-30-23

Dollar and Euro Slide on Rate Cut Expectations, with US PCE and Eurozone CPI in Focus

Dollar and Euro are emerging as notable underperformers for the week, largely influenced by increasing market anticipation of interest rate cuts by Fed and ECB in the coming year, a sentiment that is also impacting treasury yields. In US, 10-year treasury yield, a key benchmark for market expectations, has dropped below 4.3% for the first time since September. This movement reflects the changing perceptions of investors, who are now factoring in a greater likelihood of a shift in Fed's policy. Market probabilities indicate less than a 50% chance of a rate cut by Fed in March 2024, but expectations rise to nearly 80% for May. The release of today's US PCE inflation data is eagerly awaited, as it could either confirm the market's expectations or lead to adjustments in the outlook...

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.63; (P) 147.27; (R1) 147.87; More...

USD/JPY is staying consolidation above 146.65 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 148.75) holds. Break of 146.65 will resume the fall from 151.89 to 100% projection of 151.89 to 147.14 from 149.66 at 144.91, which is close to 145.06 key resistance turned support.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production M/M Oct P	1.00%	0.70%	0.50%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade Y/Y Oct	4.20%	5.90%	5.80%	6.30%
00:00	NZD	ANZ Business Confidence Nov	30.8	23.4
00:30	AUD	Private Capital Expenditure Q3	0.60%	1.00%	2.80%
00:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit M/M Oct	0.30%	0.40%	0.50%
01:00	CNY	NBS Manufacturing PMI Nov	49.4	49.6	49.5
01:00	CNY	NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Nov	50.2	51.1	50.6
05:00	JPY	Housing Starts Y/Y Oct	-6.30%	-7.00%	-6.80%
07:00	EUR	Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct	0.50%	-0.80%
07:30	CHF	Real Retail Sales Y/Y Oct	0.20%	-0.60%
08:00	CHF	KOF Economic Barometer Nov	96.2	95.8
08:55	EUR	Germany Unemployment Change Nov	25K	30K
08:55	EUR	Germany Unemployment Rate Nov	5.80%	5.80%
09:00	EUR	Italy Unemployment Oct	7.40%	7.40%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct	6.50%	6.50%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov P	3.80%	2.90%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov P	3.90%	4.20%
13:30	CAD	GDP M/M Sep	0.10%	0.00%
13:30	USD	Personal Income M/M Oct	0.20%	0.30%
13:30	USD	Personal Spending Oct	0.20%	0.70%
13:30	USD	PCE Price Index M/M Oct	0.10%	0.40%
13:30	USD	PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct	3.00%	3.40%
13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct	0.20%	0.30%
13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct	3.50%	3.70%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)	215K	209K
14:45	USD	Chicago PMI Nov	45.4	44
15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales M/M Oct	-0.70%	1.10%
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage	-8B	-7B