 Dollar took a notable downturn in the Asian session, and picking up downward momentum too, following a weekend poll that showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris edging ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa. Although Harris’s 47% to 44% lead falls within the 3.4% margin of error, this development marks a significant shift in a state that Trump won by considerable margins in both his previous campaigns—over 9 points in 2016 and 8 points in 2020. The market interpretation of a Harris lead versus a Trump win are starkly different. Some analysts suggest that a Trump victory, particularly with unified control of Congress, would likely be bullish for Dollar. A unified GOP government could drive a sell-off in Treasuries, pushing yields higher and boosting the greenback. On the other hand, a Harris victory paired with a split Congress could prompt an unwinding of “Trump trades,” as markets would likely adjust expectations away from pro-growth fiscal policies that would otherwise drive Dollar strength.... | 
