Dollar Retreats as Markets Stabilize Post-Election; Focus Shifts to BoE and FOMC

Action Insight Daily Report 11-7-24

Dollar Retreats as Markets Stabilize Post-Election; Focus Shifts to BoE and FOMC

Dollar saw a modest pullback in Asian session today, easing off its sharp post-election rally as market enthusiasm stabilized. US equities, including DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, all closed at record highs overnight on strong gains, with DOW particularly outperforming. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yield surged to a crucial Fibonacci resistance level that could prove pivotal. The focus now shifts to today’s FOMC rate decision, where Chair Jerome Powell’s stance will be closely scrutinized for indications of rate cuts, especially amid market adjustments following the election outcome.

In the currency markets, Kiwi and Aussie are currently the strongest performers of the day, buoyed by improved risk sentiment. This positive mood was further supported by robust trade data from China, which reported a 12.7% yoy increase in exports for October—the fastest pace in 19 months. The surge is attributed "front-loading" shipments ahead of escalating trade tensions when Donald Trump assumes office. Sterling also showed resilience, with market focusing on BoE rate decision. There is speculation that policy easing might proceed at a slower pace than initially anticipated due to the government's new inflationary budget.

Conversely, Euro is trailing behind, following the greenback as the second weakest currency for the day, with Swiss Franc not far behind. Yen sits in the middle of the pack alongside Loonie. Japan's top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, expressed concern over recent sharp rise in USD/JPY, characterizing the movement as "one-sided and drastic". He indicated that the government is closely monitoring currency developments, including speculative activities, and is prepared to take necessary measures if required. However, it is unclear what possible actions Japan could implement to counter the "one-sided" strength of Dollar....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6508; (P) 0.6577; (R1) 0.6640; More...

AUD/USD failed to sustain below 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348, and recovered after dipping to 0.6511. Intraday bias is turned neutral again first. Further fall is still expected as long as 0.6644 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6526 will pave the way to 0.6348 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6644 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6682).

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep 2.80% 3.00% 2.80% 2.80%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep 4.61B 5.28B 5.64B 5.28B
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Oct 95.7B 73.5B 81.7B
07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Sep -1.00% 2.90%
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 24.3B 22.5B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Oct 716B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.40% 0.20%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4.75% 5.00%
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--8--1 0--1--8
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1) 220K 216K
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q3 P 2.30% 2.50%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 P 0.50% 0.40%
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Sep F -0.10% -0.10%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 67B 78B
19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.75% 5.00%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference