Dollar Reverses Post-Election Gains as Markets Seek Clarity on Fed's Rate Path

Action Insight Daily Report 11-8-24

Dollar Reverses Post-Election Gains as Markets Seek Clarity on Fed's Rate Path

Yen jumps broadly in Asian trading today, boosted by heightened government warnings against the recent selloff on the currency. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a strong statement addressing the “one-sided and drastic moves” in Yen, confirming that the government is monitoring the situation with the “utmost sense of urgency.” He emphasized Japan’s commitment to take “appropriate actions” to counter what it considers excessive volatility.

Supporting this stance, Japanese Ministry of Finance released quarterly data revealing substantial interventions earlier last quarter. On July 11, Japan spent JPY 3.168T on dollar-selling intervention, followed by an additional JPY 2.367T on July 12. These efforts successfully lifted the Yen from a low of 161.76 to 157.30 within two days, effectively defending the critical 160 psychological level.

Adding a broader regional perspective, South Korea’s Finance Minister, Choi Sang-mok, also announced an expanded 24-hour monitoring framework that will now include financial markets and foreign exchange alongside ongoing concerns related to the Middle East. Minister Choi assured markets that South Korean authorities are prepared to act swiftly if volatility spikes in the currency or financial markets.

The coordinated messages from both Japan and South Korea suggest the possibility of regional intervention should depreciation pressures on Yen and South Korean Won intensify, highlighting a collective commitment to maintaining currency stability in the face of global economic uncertainties...

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.80; (P) 165.39; (R1) 165.79; More....

EUR/JPY's retreat from 166.67 extends lower today but stays above 164.25 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38 will pave the way to retest 175.41 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 164.25 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 163.36).

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep 2.80% 3.00% 2.80% 2.80%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep 4.61B 5.28B 5.64B 5.28B
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Oct 95.7B 73.5B 81.7B
07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Sep -2.50% -1.00% 2.90% 2.60%
07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 17.0B 24.3B 22.5B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Oct 719B 716B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.50% 0.40% 0.20%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% 5.00%
12:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--8--1 0--8--1 0--1--8
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1) 221K 220K 216K 218K
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q3 P 2.20% 2.30% 2.50%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 P 1.90% 1.10% 0.40%
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Sep F -0.10% -0.10%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 67B 78B
19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.75% 5.00%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference