Euro Strong Ahead of PMI Release, Dollar Weak as 10-Yr Yield Broke 4%

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-15-23

Euro Strong Ahead of PMI Release, Dollar Weak as 10-Yr Yield Broke 4%

Euro is emerging as the strongest currency for the week, bolstered by ECB's resistance to the expectations of a rate cut. The common currency will now look into today's Eurozone data. Positive surprises from there could solidify ECB's stance, and give Euro more fuel to extend recent rise. For now, Japanese Yen followed as the second strongest, supported by declining global treasury yields and in anticipation of the upcoming BoJ meeting. Australian Dollar ranked as the third strongest, driven by robust job data and an improving trade relationship with China.

Conversely, Dollar remains generally weak and is on track to be the worst performer for the week. Fed's dovish turn led to sharp decline in the greenback and treasury yields, while simultaneously propelling DOW to record highs. The impact of these moves is ongoing and far from over. New Zealand Dollar ranks as the second-worst performer, with economists retracting their expectations of another rate hike by RBNZ following disappointing GDP data. Canadian Dollar also underperformed, despite a recovery in WTI crude oil prices above 70 mark. Sterling showed mixed performance despite BoE's hawkish hold.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0905; (P) 1.0957; (R1) 1.1044; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside for 1.1016 resistance. Decisive break there will will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.0447. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.1274 high. On the downside, below 1.0914 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.0722 support holds.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Nov 46.7 42.5 42.9
22:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI Dec P 47.8 47.7
22:00 AUD Services PMI Dec P 47.6 46
00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Dec -22 -23 -24
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Dec P 47.7 48.2 48.3
00:30 JPY Services PMI Dec P 52 50.8
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Nov 6.60% 5.60% 4.60%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Nov 10.10% 12.50% 7.60%
02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Nov 2.90% 3.00% 2.90%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Oct -0.80% 0.20% -1.00%
08:15 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Dec P 43.2 42.9
08:15 EUR France Services PMI Dec P 46 45.4
08:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec P 43.3 42.6
08:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Dec P 49.8 49.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec P 44.5 44.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Dec P 49 48.7
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Dec P 47.5 47.2
09:30 GBP Services PMI Dec P 51 50.9
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Oct 10.3B 9.2B
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Nov 260.0K 274.7K
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Oct 0.50% 0.40%
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Dec 2 9.1
14:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Nov 0.30% -0.60%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Nov 79.20% 78.90%
14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Dec P 49.1 49.4
14:45 USD Services PMI Dec P 50.5 50.8