UK GDP Takes Center Stage as Dollar Momentum Fades

Action Insight Daily Report 2-13-25

UK GDP Takes Center Stage as Dollar Momentum Fades

The forex markets was subdued in Asian session today. Dollar strength faded quickly after initial boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data. While the greenback retains most of its gains against Yen, it has started to weaken against other major currencies. The reluctance of Dollar to sustain its rally—despite reduced odds of a Fed rate cut in the first half of 2025 and ongoing tariff threats—suggests that another down leg may be on the horizon.

With US inflation data out of the way, market focus now shifts to the UK, where Q4 GDP figures are set for release. The economy is expected to have contracted -0.1% qoq, with a modest 0.1% mom expansion in December. Think tank NIESR remains cautiously optimistic, predicting subdued growth in the first half of the year before an acceleration in the second half. It expects GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, supported by higher government spending and business investment....

Full Report Here

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2387; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2493; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rebound from 1.2099 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, below 1.2331 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2248 support. Firm break there will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, decisive break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

WTI Crude Oil Prices Meets Stiff Resistance—Will Bulls Push Through?

Dow Jones (DJIA) Analysis: Inflation Impact and Market Recovery

Bitcoin Wave Analysis

CHFJPY Wave Analysis

DAX Index Wave Analysis

Nikkei 225 index Wave Analysis

Hot January CPI Sends a Chill Over the Inflation Outlook

Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
alt
Xi-Trump Call Cancelled, 10% Tariff Just 'Opening Salvo', Chinese Stocks Rallying
alt
Takeaways of Trump 2.0 Two Weeks In
alt
America's Next Top Model: Tariff Edition
alt
RBA Rate Call: 0.2 Beats 0.3, It’s on for February
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Jan 4.20% 4.00% 3.80% 3.90%
00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Feb 4.60% 4.00%
00:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Jan 22% 27% 28% 26%
02:00 NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations Q1 2.06% 2.12%
07:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Jan F -0.20% -0.20%
07:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jan F 2.30% 2.30%
07:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 P -0.10% 0.00%
07:00 GBP GDP M/M Dec 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Dec 0.30% -0.40%
07:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Dec -2.10% -1.80%
07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Dec 0.10% -0.30%
07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec -1.90% -1.20%
07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Dec -18.3B -19.3B
07:30 CHF CPI M/M Jan -0.10% -0.10%
07:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Jan 0.40% 0.60%
09:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec -0.60% 0.20%
13:30 USD PPI M/M Jan 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jan 3.30%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jan 0.30% 0.00%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jan 3.50%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 7) 221K 219K
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -90B -174B