Gold Jumps on Ukraine Risks, Swiss Franc Firm and Euro Weak
Action Insight Daily Report 2-14-22

Gold Jumps on Ukraine Risks, Swiss Franc Firm and Euro Weak

The forex markets are pretty steady in Asia session today, with major pairs and crosses bounded inside yesterday's range. Sentiment is mixed as investors are awaiting to see Russia would invade Ukraine on February 16, as media reported. But the rally in Gold suggests that investors are getting nervous on the risks. For now, Swiss Franc and Yen are the stronger ones, while Euro and Sterling are soft together with Kiwi.

Technically, Euro is starting to look vulnerable as geopolitical risks clearly outweighs prospect of interest rate hike. In particular, we'll pay attention to EUR/CHF's reaction to 1.0439 minor support, as well as EUR/USD's reaction to 1.1265 minor support. Break of these levels will indicate that near term rebound in the two pairs completed. They will then be heading back to 1.0298 and 1.1120 low respectively, with prospects of downside breakout.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.37%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.67%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.40%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.35%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0006 at 0.218. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.49%. S&P 500 dropped to 0.38%. NASDAQ dropped -0.00%. 10-year yield rose 0.041 to 1.996, after hitting 2.026.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0423; (P) 1.0469; (R1) 1.0499; More....

Immediate focus is now on 1.0439 support in EUR/CHF. Firm break there should confirm that rebound from 1.0298 has completed, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 1.0298 at 1.0623. Deeper fall will then be seen back to retest 1.0298 low. On the upside, break of 1.0527 minor resistance will clear near term downside risk and bring stronger rebound back to 1.0623 fibonacci resistance instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q4 P 1.30% 1.40% -0.90%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P -1.30% -1.20% -1.20%
00:30 AUD RBA Minutes
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Dec F -1.00% -1.00%
07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Jan -43.3K
07:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Dec 4.10% 4.10%
07:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Dec 3.60% 3.80%
07:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Dec 3.90% 4.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec -2.5B -1.3B
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.30% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q4 P 0.40% 0.90%
10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb 53.5 51.7
10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Feb -7 -10.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb 52.3 49.4
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Jan 270.0K 236.1K
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Feb 10 -0.7
13:30 USD PPI M/M Jan 0.60% 0.20%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jan 9.20% 9.70%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jan 0.50% 0.50%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jan 8.10% 8.30%