Dollar Turning Bearish on Fed Outlook and Yield Curve Inversion
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-19-19

Dollar Turning Bearish on Fed Outlook and Yield Curve Inversion

Dollar was sold off broadly overnight, as dragged down by falling treasury yields. Also, recent comments from Fed officials continued to affirm the "patient" monetary policy stance. While the greenback is trying to recover in Asian session today, there is no clear follow through buying. The greenback will look into FOMC minutes to be released later in US session. But the minutes are unlikely to provide any inspiration for a turnaround. Meanwhile, Yen is also under pressure today as Asian stocks extend recent rebound.

Technically, GBP/USD's strong break of 1.2958 resistance suggests that pull back from 1.3217 has completed at 1.2773 already. Focus is back on 1.3174 key resistance. Decisive break there will be a strong sign of larger bullish reversal. EUR/USD's break of 1.1341 minor resistance also suggests more rebound towards 1.1514. USD/CAD also breached 1.3196 support which opens deeper decline aback to 1.3068 low. Overall, near term outlook in Dollar is turning bearish.

In Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.60%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.88%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.16%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0037 at -0.033. Overnight, DOW rose 0.03%. S&P 500 rose 0.15%. NASDAQ rose 0.19%. 10-year yield dropped -0.019 to 2.647. 30-year yield dropped -0.006 to 2.991. One thing to note is that 5-year yield at 2.458, is below 6-month yield at 2.501. Yield curve is getting more inverted again.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2948; (P) 1.3011; (R1) 1.3126; More....

GBP/USD's break of 1.2957 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.3217 has completed at 1.2773 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 1.3174/3217 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.2661, h: 1.2391, rs: 1.2773). That would indicate bullish reversal for 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, break of 1.2895 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2773 instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:45 NZD PPI Output Q/Q Q4 0.80% 1.10% 1.50%
21:45 NZD PPI Input Q/Q Q4 1.60% 1.00% 1.40%
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jan 0.00% -0.21% -0.30%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Jan -0.37T 0.17T -0.18T -0.22T
0:30 AUD Wage Price Index Q/Q Q4 0.50% 0.60% 0.60%
7:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jan -0.10% -0.40%
7:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jan 2.20% 2.70%
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb A -7.7 -7.9
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes
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