Euro and Sterling Sink on Escalating Risks of Russia Invading Ukraine
Action Insight Daily Report 2-22-22

Euro and Sterling Sink on Escalating Risks of Russia Invading Ukraine

Market sentiment sinks deeply after Russian President Valdimir Putin declared recognition of independence of the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, and ordered troops to enter the regions, which is seen as risk of imminent invasion. Coordinated sanctions on Russia are expected shortly from the US and allies, including the UK, France and Germany. It seems that further escalation is the only way to go.

Asian stocks are in deep red today, which US futures trading heavily lower. On the other hand, Gold and oil prices are both firming up. In the currency markets, Swiss Franc remains the strongest one for the week on risk aversion, while Yen is catching up. Euro is so far the worst performing one, together with Sterling. Others are mixed.

Technically, GBP/CHF's break of 1.2465 support should confirm that rebound from 1.2276 has completed at 1.2598. and deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2776 as risk sentiment deteriorates. To follow up, we'd now look at 155.11 support in GBP/JPY. Firm break there will suggest that rise from 152.88 has finished at 158.04. Deeper selloff could then be seen back to 152.88 and possibly through to 148.94. Both pairs could be indicative of how desperate the safe haven flows are.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.93%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.95%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.36%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.83%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0095 at 0.199.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.41; (P) 130.15; (R1) 130.55; More....

EUR/JPY's fall from 133.13 resumed by breaking 130.03 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 134.11 is seen as extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline should be seen to 128.23 support first. Break there will target 127.36 support and possibly first to 126.58 medium term fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 131.89 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Jan 1.20% 1.20% 1.10%
07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jan -3.6B 16.1B
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Feb 96.5 95.7
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Feb 96.6 96.1
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Feb 96.5 95.2
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Y/Y Dec 18.00% 18.30%
14:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Dec 1.10% 1.10%
14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Feb P 56 55.5
14:45 USD Services PMI Feb P 53 51.2
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Feb 110.2 113.8