Yields Surged, Stocks Tumbled after Fed Powell, Dollar in Half-Hearted Rally
Action Insight Daily Report 3-4-21

Yields Surged, Stocks Tumbled after Fed Powell, Dollar in Half-Hearted Rally

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's lack of concrete hint on action against rising nominal rates sent treasury yield higher, and stocks lower overnight. Dollar rode on risk aversion and jumped sharply higher. Nevertheless, the greenback's rally was concentrated against Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen only. Sterling, Canadian, and Australian are indeed still rather resilient. In particular, Canadian Dollar was support by resumption of oil price rally after OPEC rolled over production cuts. Now, focus will turn to non-farm payrolls from the US later in the day.

Technically, rises in USD/CHF and USD/JPY are both accelerating upwards. EUR/USD's breach of 1.1951 support also suggests resumption of corrective fall from 1.2348 as expected. Attention is turned to other Dollar pairs. Levels to watch included 1.3828 support in GBP/USD, 0.7691 temporary low in AUD/USD and 1.2742 temporary top in USD/CAD. As long as these levels hold, Dollar's rally is considered just "half-hearted".

In Asia, currently, Nikkei is down -0.96%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.30%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.34%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.16%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.029 at 0.111. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.11%. S&P 500 dropped -1.34%. NASDAQ dropped -2.11%. 10-year yield rose 0.080 to 1.550.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1934; (P) 1.2001; (R1) 1.2039; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the downside as fall from 1.2442 resumes. Such decline is third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2348. Break of 1.1951 will target 100% projection of 1.2348 to 1.1951 from 1.2242 at 1.1845. We'd look for bottoming signal there. But break of 1.2112 minor resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.1845 will extend the correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
21:30 AUD AiG Performance of Services Feb 55.8 54.3
07:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Jan -1.00% -1.90%
07:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Jan -3.4B -3.4B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Feb 896B
09:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.60% 2.50%
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 148K 49K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Feb 6.40% 6.30%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Jan -67.5B -66.6B
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Jan -1.4B -1.7B
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Feb 49.2 48.4