Yen Rises on Persistent Inflation, Focus Turns to PMI Data and Canada's Retail Sales
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-21-23 |
Yen Rises on Persistent Inflation, Focus Turns to PMI Data and Canada's Retail Sales |
Japanese Yen rose broadly in today's Asian trading session following the release of CPI data, indicating inflation remains persistently above BoJ's target. While it is still early for BoJ to make any changes to monetary policy, a case for a shift later this year is building. Meanwhile, Dollar and Euro are firmer in relatively quiet trading. Overall sentiment is slightly risk-off, with Australian Dollar leading other commodity currencies lower. Canadian Dollar is also spiraling down alongside oil prices. Sterling the Swiss franc are currently mixed. Market focus will shift to PMI data from the UK, Eurozone, and the US, as well as Canada's retail sales report. Technically, significant buying emerged in EUR/AUD as it approached a minor support level at 1.6216, keeping the near-term outlook bullish. Focus will return to the 1.6444 temporary top, which coincides with the 1.6434 long-term resistance (2021 high). A decisive break there will add to the case for long-term bullishness in the cross. Simultaneously, AUD/USD could also move in tandem with the Aussie selloff, potentially breaking the 0.6619 support level and reaching 0.6563 low. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.24%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.09%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.40%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.29%. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.33%. S&P 500 dropped -0.60%. NASDAQ dropped -0.80%. 10-year yield dropped -0.057 to 3.545. |
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.91; (P) 147.38; (R1) 147.73; More.... A temporary top is in place at 147.85 in EUR/JPY ahead of 148.38 high. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 145.66 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 148.38 will resume larger up trend to 149.75 long term resistance. However, firm break of 145.66 will indicate that corrective pattern from 148.38 has started the third leg. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 142.53 support first and possibly below. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:00 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 48.1 | 49.1 | | 23:00 | AUD | Services PMI Apr P | 52.6 | 48.6 | | 23:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Apr | -30 | -35 | -36 | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Mar | 3.20% | 2.60% | 3.30% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Mar | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core-Core Y/Y Mar | 3.80% | 3.40% | 3.50% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 49.5 | 49.9 | 49.2 | | 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Apr P | 54.9 | 55 | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Mar | -0.90% | -0.50% | 1.20% | 1.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales Y/Y Mar | -3.10% | -3.10% | -3.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel M/M Mar | -1% | -0.70% | 1.50% | 1.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel Y/Y Mar | -3.20% | -3.10% | -3.30% | -3.00% | | 07:15 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 47.5 | 47.3 | | 07:15 | EUR | France Services PMI Apr P | 53.6 | 53.9 | | 07:30 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 45.6 | 44.7 | | 07:30 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Apr P | 53.5 | 53.7 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 48.2 | 47.3 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Apr P | 54.6 | 55 | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 48.8 | 47.9 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Apr P | 52.9 | 52.9 | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Feb | -0.60% | 1.40% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Feb | 0.00% | 0.90% | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Apr P | 49.2 | 49.2 | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Apr P | 51.8 | 52.6 |
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