Risk Aversion Gains Momentum, Aussie Heading Back to Year Low Against Dollar

Action Insight Daily Report 4-26-23

Risk Aversion Gains Momentum, Aussie Heading Back to Year Low Against Dollar

Risk aversion is intensifying as US stocks tumbled significantly overnight, following First Republic Bank's earnings report, which reignited concerns about the broader banking sector. The troubled regional bank's shares plummeted by nearly half. Concurrently, bonds surged higher, pushing 10-year yield below 3.4% handle. Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc surged following the shift in sentiment, trailed by Dollar.

Meanwhile, Australian Dollar led the decline, as it was further pressured by plunging Copper prices. Aussie could be ready to break through 2023 low against the greenback. Canadian Dollar followed as the second worst performer, with Sterling following. Euro is mixed as partly supported by hawkish comments by ECB officials.

Technically, it appears that NASDAQ's rebound from 10,982.80 has peaked at 12,245.42, just ahead of 12,269.55 resistance. Immediate focus returns to 55 D EMA (now at 11,779.21). Sustained break there could prompt deeper decline back towards 10,982.80 support. As long as 10,982.80 support holds, outlook would be more neutral than bearish, with another rise through 12,269.55 remaining slightly in favor. However, firm break below 10,982.80 could signal that larger downtrend from 2021 high of 16,212.22 is resuming through 10,088.82 low.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.92%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.59%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.31%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.15%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.015 at 0.465. Overnight DOW dropped -1.02%. S&P 500 dropped -1.58%. NASDAQ dropped -1.98%. 10-year yield dropped sharply by -0.119 to 3.396.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6592; (P) 0.6649; (R1) 0.6683; More...

AUD/USD's break of 0.6619 support argues that consolidation pattern from 0.6563 has completed at 0.6804, and larger fall from 0.7156 is ready to resume. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 0.6563 support first. Firm break there should bring deeper decline through 0.6546 fibonacci level to 61.8% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6563 from 0.6804 at 0.6438 next. On the upside, though, above 0.6704 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar -500M -714M
01:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Mar 6.30% 6.50% 6.80%
01:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q1 1.40% 1.30% 1.90%
01:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q1 7.00% 6.90% 7.80%
01:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q1 1.20% 1.40% 1.70%
01:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q1 6.60% 7.20% 6.90%
06:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence May -27.5 -29.5
08:00 CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Apr -41.3
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Mar P -89.8B -91.6B
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Mar P -0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Mar 0.80% -1.00%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Mar -0.20% -0.10%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.3M -4.6M