Australian Dollar Weakens Post-RBA Decision, Other Commodity Currencies Stay Firm
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-4-23 |
Australian Dollar Weakens Post-RBA Decision, Other Commodity Currencies Stay Firm |
Australian Dollar finds itself on a broad-based downward trajectory following RBA's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. Despite maintaining a tightening bias, RBA's announcement fell short of some speculations for a more hawkish outcome. In contrast, fellow commodity currencies, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar, continue to display strength. Kiwi is bracing for the upcoming RBNZ rate hike tomorrow, while Loonie rides the wave of this week's oil price rally. Across the currency market, Dollar emerges as the week's weakest performer so far, trailed by Yen and Swiss Franc. Market sentiment appears to be leaning towards a risk-on scenario. Euro and British Pound are mixed but look poised to extend their recent rallies against the US Dollar. On the technical front, WTI crude oil garners significant attention. While it has yet to firmly break through the 80 mark, its pullback from this week's high of $81.54 remains modest. A sustained break of 80.82 resistance level could signal a bullish trend reversal, potentially pushing prices up to next resistance at 94.25. Murmurs of WTI crude oil climbing back to 100 has also started to circulate. Nevertheless, an extended rally might trigger a complex chain reaction, impacting inflation and interest rate expectations, which could then reverberate through stock and bond markets. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.31%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.64%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.24%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.79%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.215 at 0.392. Overnight, DOW rose 0.98%. S&P 500 rose 0.37%. NASDAQ dropped -0.27%. 10-year yield dropped -0.064 to 3.430. |
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5988; (P) 1.6114; (R1) 1.6192; More... EUR/AUD recovers after drawing support from 1.6053 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Focus stays on 0.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.6053 will confirm short term topping, after rejection by the mentioned resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5848 support and possibly below. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:00 | NZD | NZIER Business Confidence Q1 | -66 | -70 | | 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base Y/Y Mar | -1.00% | 2.00% | -1.60% | | 04:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.60% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Feb | 16.9B | 16.7B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI M/M Feb | -0.30% | -2.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb | 13.50% | 15.00% | | 12:30 | CAD | Building Permits M/M Feb | 2.20% | -4.00% | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Feb | -0.30% | -1.60% |
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