Yen Rebounding Further on Risk Aversion and Falling Yields
Action Insight Daily Report 5-12-22

Yen Rebounding Further on Risk Aversion and Falling Yields

With the help from risk aversion and extended pull back in benchmark global treasury yields, Yen's rebound is making some progress. US 10-year yield is back below 2.9% handle in Asian session while Germany 10-year bund yield also broke 1% yesterday. Euro and Dollar are still relatively firm on risk-off sentiment. On the other hand, selloff continues to concentrate on Aussie and Kiwi, with Sterling picking up too.

Technically, AUD/JPY resumed the decline from 95.73 after rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA. Further fall is expected to 100% projection of 95.73 to 90.41 from 94.00 at 88.68. Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete this "corrective" move, and bring rebound. However, firm break of 88.68, with downside acceleration, would raise the chance that AUD/JPY is already in trend reversal. Such development, if happens, could be a signal to broader risk market developments.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.09%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.05%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.17%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.76%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0015 at 0.250. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.02%. S&P 500 dropped -1.65%. NASDAQ dropped -3.18%. 10-year yield dropped -0.072 to 2.921.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.25; (P) 159.79; (R1) 160.73; More...

GBP/JPY's fall from 168.50 resumed by breaking through 159.59 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 150.95 to 168.40 at 157.61. Strong support is expected there to complete the correction to bring rebound. On the upside, above 162.16 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 168.40 high. However, sustained break of 157.61 will bring deeper fall back to 150.95 key structural support.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Apr 80% 71% 74%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Apr 0.90% 0.40% 0.50%
23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Mar 1.56T 0.63T 0.52T
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations May 5.00% 5.20%
03:00 NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations Q/Q Q2 3.29% 3.27%
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr 51.3 47.8
06:00 GBP GDP M/M Mar 0.10% 0.10%
06:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 P 1.00% 1.30%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar 0.00% -0.40%
06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 2.30% 3.60%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar 0.10% -0.60%
06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 0.40% 1.60%
06:00 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Mar 0.90% 0.80%
06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Mar -18.5B -20.6B
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Apr 0.90% 0.80%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Apr 5.80% 6.10%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Apr 0.50% 1.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Apr 10.70% 11.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Apr 0.60% 1.00%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Apr 8.90% 9.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 6) 190K 200K
13:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) Apr 1.00% 1.00%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 82B 77B