Dollar Weakens as Markets Anticipate Last Fed Rate Hike; Yen Gains Amid Cautious Sentiment
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-3-23 |
Dollar Weakens as Markets Anticipate Last Fed Rate Hike; Yen Gains Amid Cautious Sentiment |
Dollar weakens broadly in today's Asian session as markets await what could be the last Fed rate hike in the current cycle. Risk sentiment is on the downside, with stock selloff carrying over from the US to Asia. Despite this, the greenback sees no apparent support. Conversely, Yen benefits from cautious sentiment a decline in benchmark treasury yields. Oversold condition is also helping the Japanese currency slightly. Commodity currencies show mixed performance, with notable strength seen in New Zealand Dollar. Solid employment and wage data support another RBNZ hike later this month. Australian Dollar continues to reverse yesterday's gains following the surprising RBA hike, while Canadian Dollar remains sluggish due to falling oil prices. European majors are also mixed, with eyes on tomorrow's ECB rate decision. In technical terms, Gold broke 2012.18 resistance level overnight due to risk aversion, contrary to our expectations. This development suggests that pullback from 2048.26 may have already completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 1,804.48 to 2,048.26 well. Stronger rally back to 2,048.26 is now favored, with a break there resuming larger rally towards 2074.48 record high. If realized, this could also coincide with upside breakout in EUR/USD through 1.1094. In Asia, at the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is down -1.84%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.81%. Japan and China are on holiday. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.08%. S&P 500 dropped -1.16%. NASDAQ dropped -1.08%. 10-year yield dropped -0.135 to 3.439. |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.43; (P) 136.00; (R1) 136.88; More... With current retreat, a temporary top is formed in USD/JPY at 137.76, ahead of 137.90 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 135.13 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 137.90 will resume whole rebound from 127.20, and target 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. However, firm break of 135.13 will turn bias back to the downside for 133.00 support and below. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Employment Change Q1 | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 22:45 | NZD | Unemployment Rate Q1 | 3.40% | 3.50% | 3.40% | | 22:45 | NZD | Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q1 | 0.90% | 1.10% | 1.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Mar | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Rate Mar | 8.10% | 8.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar | 6.60% | 6.60% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Apr | 150K | 145K | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Apr F | 53.7 | 53.7 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Apr | 53.1 | 51.2 | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.5M | -5.1M | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.00% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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