Dollar Back in Control ahead of NFP, Risk Aversion Back
Action Insight Daily Report 5-6-22

Dollar Back in Control ahead of NFP, Risk Aversion Back

Dollar is back in control as markets turned back into risk-off mode, just a day after the rallies triggered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments. Investors are apparently not too convinced by the ruling out of 75bps hike after a second thought. Focuses will turn to non-farm payroll report today, which should prompt even more volatility.

Staying in the current markets, Aussie is still the strongest one for the week, followed by Canadian. But both are starting to look vulnerable against the third-placed Dollar. Sterling is the worst performing one after BoE put stagflation into perspective. Swiss Franc is also weak followed by Kiwi. Yen and Euro are mixed for now.

Technically, attention will be on whether Dollar would finally break out of range against Euro and Yen today. Levels to watch are 1.0470 support in EUR/USD and 131.24 resistance in USD/JPY. Firm break of theses levels should confirm the underlying broad-based strength of the greenback.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.58%. Hong Kong HSI is down -3.65%. China Shanghai SSE is down -2.18%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0143 at 0.244. Overnight, DOW dropped -3.12%. S&P 500 dropped -3.56%. NASDAQ dropped -4.99%. 10-year yield rose 0.149 to close at 3.066.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.79; (P) 130.04; (R1) 130.38; More...

USD/JPY is still staying in range below 131.24 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, near term outlook stays bullish with 126.91 support intact and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 126.91 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 121.27/125.09 support zone.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Services Index Apr 57.8 56.2
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr 1.90% 1.80% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr 6.60% 8.20% 7.90%
01:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Apr 2.20% 2.20%
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Mar -1.30% 0.20%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Apr 911B
08:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.50% 0.70%
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Apr 58 59.1
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 400K 431K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Apr 3.60% 3.60%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 39.5K 72.5K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 5.20% 5.30%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Apr 70 74.2