Sterling Soft ahead of BoE, Swiss Franc Eyes SNB
| Action Insight Daily Report 6-22-23 |
Sterling Soft ahead of BoE, Swiss Franc Eyes SNB |
Sterling is surprisingly soft this week even though markets are raising bets on a more aggressive than expected BoE rate hike, after yesterday's UK CPI data. It's clearly weighed down in selloff against the stronger Euro. Swiss Franc is comparatively steady as SNB rate decision is also awaited. Overall, currency markets appear more attuned to a shift away from risk-on sentiment, evidenced by a notable decline in Australian and New Zealand Dollar. US Dollar and Japanese Yen, however, are displaying a mixed performance. Technically, EUR/USD's rally from 1.0634 resumed after brief consolidations. There are two questions regarding the development. Firstly, current upside momentum as seen in 4H MACD doesn't warrant a firm break through 1.1094 yet. Break of 1.0891 support would indeed extend the corrective pattern from 1.1094 with another falling leg towards 1.0634 before completion. Secondly, USD/CHF was rejected by 55 4H EMA and tumbled notably. But downside is contained above 0.8900 temporary low. Extended rally in EUR/USD could help USD/CHF break through 0.8900 towards 0.8818 low. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.75%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.98%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.31%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.20%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0015 at 0.375. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.30%. S&P 500 dropped -0.52%. NASDAQ dropped -1.21%. 10-year yield dropped -0.006 to 3.723. |
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8551; (P) 0.8580; (R1) 0.8635; More... Immediate focus is now on 0.8611 resistance in EUR/GBP. Decisive break there will confirm short term bottoming at 0.8517, stronger rebound would then be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8670) and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8611, will maintain near term bearishness. Further break of 0.8517 will resume the fall from 0.8977 to 161.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8453. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) May | 46M | 350M | 427M | 236M | | 07:30 | CHF | SNB Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.50% | | 08:00 | CHF | SNB Press Conference | | 11:00 | GBP | BoE Rate Decision | 4.75% | 4.50% | | 11:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 7--0--2 | 7--0--2 | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 16) | 256K | 262K | | 12:30 | USD | Current Account (USD) Q1 | -217B | -207B | | 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales May | 4.25M | 4.28M | | 14:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun P | -17 | -17.4 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 89B | 84B | | 15:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 0.3M | 7.9M |
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