Dollar Drops on Renewed Tariff Risks as Trump Targets Japan, Swiss Franc Shines

Action Insight Daily 7-1-25

Dollar Drops on Renewed Tariff Risks as Trump Targets Japan, Swiss Franc Shines

Dollar’s selloff extended overnight, breaking to fresh lows against Euro and Swiss Franc, as markets grow increasingly uneasy about U.S. trade policy ahead of the July 9 deadline. While US equities remain resilient, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ surging to record highs, FX markets are telling a different story, with safe haven flows driving gains in Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that Washington is prepared to slap higher tariffs on countries failing to reach a deal by next week. The temporary 10% rate is set to expire, potentially reverting to levels as high as 50% announced in April. President Donal Trump has also intensified his rhetoric. In a social media post, he criticized Japan for refusing to import US-grown rice, calling it a symptom of trade partners becoming “spoiled” at the US’s expense. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt added that countries unwilling to negotiate “in good faith” would face the full weight of US trade measures.

European leaders are pushing back. French President Emmanuel Macron called the current tariff strategy a form of “blackmail,” arguing that trade tools should promote fairness rather than coercion. He also criticized the US for simultaneously demanding more European defense spending while launching a trade war......

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6542; (P) 0.6563; (R1) 0.6603; More...

AUD/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 0.5913 should target 0.6713 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.6507 will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6372 support holds, in case of retreat.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence Q2 22 19
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M May 10.40% -15.60% -14.60%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun 0.40% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q2 13 10 12
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2 12 9 12
23:50 JPY Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index Q2 34 34 35
23:50 JPY Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook Q2 27 29 28
23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry capex Q2 11.50% 3.10%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jun F 50.1 50.4 50.4
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jun 50.4 49 48.3
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Jun 34.5 33.6 32.8
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y May 0.80% 1.30%
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Jun 44.2 42.1
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jun F 47.8 47.8
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun F 49 49
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change May 18K 34K
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate May 6.40% 6.30%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun F 49.4 49.4
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jun F 47.7 47.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun P 2.00% 1.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jun P 2.30% 2.30%
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jun F 52 52
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun 48.8 48.5
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jun 70.2 69.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jun 46.8
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M May -0.10% -0.40%