Canadian Dollar Firm as Focus Turns to Retail Sales
Action Insight Daily Report 7-23-21

Canadian Dollar Firm as Focus Turns to Retail Sales

Trading in Asian session is relatively subdued today, as some participants are already looking forward to the weekend, after a roller coaster ride. Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one for the week, helped by rebound in WTI oil price, which is back above 71. However, New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the worst performing ones. Dollar and Yen diverged after risk markets stabilized and recovered. Euro is currently the weakest European major, in particular against Sterling.

Technically, we'd pay some attention to CAD/JPY, which could react further to Canada retail sales today, as well as the stock markets. It's now pressing 87.94 support turned resistance. Firm break there would argue that whole corrective fall from 91.16 has completed at 85.40 already. Stronger rise would be seen back to retest 91.16 high in the coming weeks.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is down -1.10%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.75%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.18%. Japan is still on holiday. Overnight, DOW rose 0.07%. S&P 500 rose 0.20%. NASDAQ rose 0.36%. 10-year yield dropped -0.015 to 1.265.

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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2531; (P) 1.2562; (R1) 1.2595; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point and some consolidations could be seen. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2485 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2805 will extend the rise from 1.2005 to 1.3022 medium term fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2485 will bring deeper fall back to next cluster support at 1.2301 (61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.2805 at 1.2311).

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI Jul P 56.8 58.6
23:00 AUD Services PMI Jul P 44.2 56.8
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Jul -7 -9 -9
6:00 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.50% -1.40%
6:00 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Jun 9.60% 24.60%
6:00 GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel M/M Jun 0.70% -2.10%
6:00 GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel Y/Y Jun 7.80% 21.70%
7:15 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jul P 58.3 59
7:15 EUR France Services PMI Jul P 59 57.8
7:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul P 64.1 65.1
7:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Jul P 59.5 57.5
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul P 62.5 63.4
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jul P 59.6 58.3
8:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jul P 62.7 63.9
8:30 GBP Services PMI Jul P 62 62.4
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M May -3.00% -5.70%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M May -5.00% -7.20%
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jul P 62 62.1
13:45 USD Services PMI Jul P 64.8 64.6