Action Insight Daily Report 7-6-23

US-China Tensions Weigh on Market Mood, Strengthen Yen and Dollar

Yen and Dollar are gaining momentum in today's trading as market sentiment appears to have soured in Asia. The development could be interpreted more as a response to escalating US-China tensions rather than hawkish tone of FOMC minutes released overnight. After all, the minutes just reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening, despite a pause in June. Meanwhile, major US indexes closed only slightly lower, even as treasury yields saw a notable surge.

Australian Dollar is emerging as the day's worst performer so far, trailed by Euro and Canadian Dollar. On the flip side, Swiss Franc is strengthening on risk aversion, while Sterling displays mixed performance, buoyed by buying against Euro. Market participants are keenly awaiting tomorrow's US non-farm payroll report, the key event for the week. However, today's ADP employment and ISM services data may trigger some traders to make early moves.

Technically, AUD/JPY's decline today argues that correction from 97.66 might be ready to resume through 95.14 support. For now, strong support is likely at around 100% projection of 97.66 to 95.14 from 96.81 at 94.29 to complete the correction. But strong break there and downside acceleration below the projection level would raise the chance of larger bearish reversal.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.70%. Hong Kong HSI is down -3.08%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.53%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.79%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0072 at 0.394. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.38%. S&P 500 dropped -0.20%. NASDAQ dropped -0.18%. 10-year yield rose 0.087 to 3.945.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.63; (P) 157.18; (R1) 157.56; More....

EUR/JPY's fall from 157.99 is extending lower today and intraday bias is now on the downside with strong break of 55 4H EMA. Deeper correction could be seen to 154.03 support or below. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds. Larger rally is still expected to resume through 157.99 after the correction completes.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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