Dollar Steady Following FOMC, BoE Rate Decision Looms

Action Insight Daily Report 8-1-24

Dollar Steady Following FOMC, BoE Rate Decision Looms

Dollar remained relatively steady following the balanced post-FOMC press conference, with notable exceptions against the stronger yen and Swiss franc. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September but refrained from making any firm commitments or providing extended guidance. While markets are aggressively betting on three Fed cuts this year, some economists view this as overly optimistic. The greenback's next moves will likely be influenced by today's ISM manufacturing data and tomorrow's non-farm payroll data.

For the week, Yen remains the strongest currency with no clear signs of a sustainable pullback. Swiss Franc is currently the second strongest, with its strength partially attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East, which have also driven up gold and oil prices. Canadian Dollar is the third strongest, benefiting from a lack of significant selling pressure.

Conversely, Euro and Sterling are at the bottom of the weekly performance chart alongside the Australian dollar. The selloff against Swiss franc is adding pressure on these two European majors. Sterling is now focused on BoE rate decision, where uncertainty about a potential rate cut looms large. The decision could trigger significant volatility in Pound and shift its position notably...

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3777; (P) 1.3818; (R1) 1.3849; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3796 support holds. Rise from 1.3176 should be resuming and next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3845 from 1.3588 at 1.4025. On the downside, below 1.3796 minor support will delay the bullish case and bring deeper pullback first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jul F 49.1 49.2 49.2
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun 5.59B 4.95B 5.77B 5.05B
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q2 1.00% -0.70% -1.80%
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.8 51.6 51.8
07:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Jul 46.2 45.7
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jul F 44.1 44.1
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul F 42.6 42.6
08:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Jun 6.80% 6.80%
08:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul F 45.6 45.6
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jul F 51.8 51.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun 6.40% 6.40%
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 5.00% 5.25%
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--6--3 0--2--7
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul 19.80%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26) 239K 235K
12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q2 P 1.50% 0.20%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 P 1.60% 4.00%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.3
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jul F 49.5 49.5
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Jul 48.8 48.5
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jul 52.5 52.1
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jul 49.3
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jun 0.20% -0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 22B