Turkish Lira Calmed by CBRT Announcements, But Stays Vulnerable
Action Insight Daily Report 8-13-18

Turkish Lira Calmed by CBRT Announcements, But Stays Vulnerable

Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the strongest ones today as supported by solid safe haven flow. The free fall in Turkish Lira raised concerns of contagion to Eurozone financial system. Such worries sends the Euro broadly lower, even though Australian Dollar performs even worse. Crisis speech of Turkish President Erdogan doesn't ease the worries a little bit. Euro remains generally weak and is vulnerable to deeper fall. Adding to that, Dollar is also firm after stronger than expected core inflation reading. Canadian Dollar is supported by stellar job data. Sterling, however, gets not support on a mixed batch of data.

In other markets, European indices are trading in deep red today with DAX down -1.78% at the time of writing, CAC down -1.29% and FTSE down -0.71%. Earlier today, major Asian indices closed lower, except China. Nikkei closed down -1.33%, Hong Kong HSI down -0.84%, Singapore Strait Times down -1.26%. But Shanghai SSE closed up 0.03% at 2795.31, even though it still could get 2800 in pocket. Despite a strong Dollar, Gold is still bounded in sideway trading around 1210. WTI crude oil is back above 67.

Technically, USD/CHF and USD/JPY are both bounded in tight range for the moment. It's so far uncertain which one of USD, JPY and CHF will win the race for the near term. Similarly, USD/CAD is also staying in tight range below 1.3119 temporary top. But the bullish outlook in USD/CAD is relatively clearer than USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Elsewhere in the forex markets, the stories are already very clearly written in the charts. It's just a matter whether the fast moving pairs will take a breath before weekly close. The more interesting development could be in treasury yield. 10 year yield is pressing 2.9 handle as bonds are boosted by flight to safety

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Quick Comments

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.57; (P) 110.87; (R1) 111.23; More...

USD/JPY's correction from 113.17 extends lower to 110.10 so far today. Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for deeper fall. At this point, we'd continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.17 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 112.14 will bring retest of 113.17 high. However, firm break of 109.90 will put focus on 109.36 key structural support level.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
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