Dollar Rally Wavers, Sentiment Steady as China Rate Cut Offsets Discouraging Data

Action Insight Daily Report 8-15-23

Dollar Rally Wavers, Sentiment Steady as China Rate Cut Offsets Discouraging Data

Dollar's spirited rally attempt faced a swift halt as major US stock indices recorded gains, positively influencing broader market sentiment. Following that, Asian markets are poised, with China's unexpected rate cut effectively counterbalancing the dampening effects of discouraging economic data. As a result, commodity currencies, including Australian Dollar, saw a resurgence.

Notably, the Aussie weathered the potentially negative implications of the recent RBA minutes. Contrarily, both Yen and Euro trended on the softer side, with the former overlooking promising GDP numbers, and the latter appearing susceptible, especially when pitted against other Europeans and commodity currencies.

Technically, USD/CHF was quickly knocked down after a brief breach of a key structural resistance at 0.8818. The overall bullish momentum for the greenback is not confirmed yet. Indeed, deeper decline in USD/CHF and break of 0.8688 support will confirm rejection by 0.8818. That would maintain bearishness in the pair and argues that larger down trend from 1.0146 is ready to resume through 0.8551 low.

Should this scenario unfold, it could be an indicator of the return of dominance of Dollar bears, hinting at a widespread selloff. On the flip side, sustained break of 0.8818 mark in USD/CHF could be indicative of a more prolonged Dollar buying spree.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.90%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.80%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.29%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0070 at 0.626. Overnight, DOW rose 0.07%. S&P 500 rose 0.58%. NASDAQ rose 1.05%. 10-year yield rose 0.016 to 4.184.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6460; (P) 0.6482; (R1) 0.6509; More...

AUD/USD recovered quickly after breaching 0.6457 support briefly. Intraday bias is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. on the downside, decisive break of 0.6457 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6615 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 P 1.50% 0.80% 0.70%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 P 3.40% 3.80% 2.00%
01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
01:30 AUD Wage Price Index Q/Q Q2 0.80% 1.00% 0.80%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul 3.70% 4.30% 4.40%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 2.50% 4.20% 3.10%
02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Jul 3.40% 3.80% 3.80%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun F 2.4% 2.00% 2.00%
06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Jul 25.7K
06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jun 4.00% 4.00%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Jun 6.90%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Jun 7.40% 7.30%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Jul 0.20% 0.00%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Jul -0.50% -0.60%
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug -15 -14.7
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Aug -63 -59.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug -12 -12.2
09:00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Jun -2.10% 1.20%
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Jul 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Jul 3.00% 2.80%
12:30 CAD CPI Media Y/Y Jul 3.70% 3.90%
12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Jul 3.50% 3.70%
12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Jul 5.00% 5.10%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Aug -0.3 1.1
12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.40% 0.20%
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jul 0.40% 0.20%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jul 0.20% -0.20%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.20% 0.20%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 56 56