Dollar Rally Wavers, Sentiment Steady as China Rate Cut Offsets Discouraging Data
| Action Insight Daily Report 8-15-23 |
Dollar Rally Wavers, Sentiment Steady as China Rate Cut Offsets Discouraging Data |
Dollar's spirited rally attempt faced a swift halt as major US stock indices recorded gains, positively influencing broader market sentiment. Following that, Asian markets are poised, with China's unexpected rate cut effectively counterbalancing the dampening effects of discouraging economic data. As a result, commodity currencies, including Australian Dollar, saw a resurgence. Notably, the Aussie weathered the potentially negative implications of the recent RBA minutes. Contrarily, both Yen and Euro trended on the softer side, with the former overlooking promising GDP numbers, and the latter appearing susceptible, especially when pitted against other Europeans and commodity currencies. Technically, USD/CHF was quickly knocked down after a brief breach of a key structural resistance at 0.8818. The overall bullish momentum for the greenback is not confirmed yet. Indeed, deeper decline in USD/CHF and break of 0.8688 support will confirm rejection by 0.8818. That would maintain bearishness in the pair and argues that larger down trend from 1.0146 is ready to resume through 0.8551 low. Should this scenario unfold, it could be an indicator of the return of dominance of Dollar bears, hinting at a widespread selloff. On the flip side, sustained break of 0.8818 mark in USD/CHF could be indicative of a more prolonged Dollar buying spree. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.90%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.80%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.29%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0070 at 0.626. Overnight, DOW rose 0.07%. S&P 500 rose 0.58%. NASDAQ rose 1.05%. 10-year yield rose 0.016 to 4.184. |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6460; (P) 0.6482; (R1) 0.6509; More... AUD/USD recovered quickly after breaching 0.6457 support briefly. Intraday bias is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. on the downside, decisive break of 0.6457 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 0.7156. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6615 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q/Q Q2 P | 1.50% | 0.80% | 0.70% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 P | 3.40% | 3.80% | 2.00% | | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Meeting Minutes | | 01:30 | AUD | Wage Price Index Q/Q Q2 | 0.80% | 1.00% | 0.80% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Jul | 3.70% | 4.30% | 4.40% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Jul | 2.50% | 4.20% | 3.10% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Jul | 3.40% | 3.80% | 3.80% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Jun F | 2.4% | 2.00% | 2.00% | | 06:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Jul | 25.7K | | 06:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jun | 4.00% | 4.00% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Jun | 6.90% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Jun | 7.40% | 7.30% | | 06:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices M/M Jul | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 06:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Jul | -0.50% | -0.60% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug | -15 | -14.7 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Aug | -63 | -59.5 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug | -12 | -12.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | EU Economic Forecasts | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Jun | -2.10% | 1.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Jul | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Jul | 3.00% | 2.80% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Media Y/Y Jul | 3.70% | 3.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Jul | 3.50% | 3.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Jul | 5.00% | 5.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Aug | -0.3 | 1.1 | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Jul | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jul | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Jul | 0.20% | -0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Jun | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Aug | 56 | 56 |
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