Dollar Struggling to Gain Momentum Despite Global Market Shakeup

Action Insight Daily Report 8-18-23

Dollar Struggling to Gain Momentum Despite Global Market Shakeup

In the face of mounting tumult across stocks, bonds, and the crypto realm, the currency market projects an island of relative calm. Despite the extended rout in equities and treasuries and the dramatic tumble in Bitcoin, the forex market has responded with comparative restraint. A discernible dip in commodity currencies is on display, with Australian Dollar leading the downturn as the worst performer of the week, trailed closely by its New Zealand and Canadian counterparts. However, a rapid downward spiral hasn't taken hold as of yet.

On the flip side, while Dollar and Swiss Franc chart among the top performers, British Pound (Sterling) continues its reign, retaining its premier top position. In the mix, both the Euro and Yen tread a middle ground, neither significantly surging nor plummeting. But there is prospect of a stronger rise in Yen ahead.

From a technical perspective, as the week draws to a close, the spotlight could shift to potential movements in Yen pairs. Should EUR/JPY breaks 158.17 support, it would likely signal a short-term peak, ushering in a more pronounced dip towards the 55 D EMA (now at 155.32). Such a move could correspondingly pull USD/JPY downwards, and possibly, a parallel dip in EUR/USD.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.41%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.12%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.06%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.69%. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.84%. S&P 500 dropped -0.77%. NASDAQ dropped -1.17%. 10-year yield rose 0.050 to 4.308.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0847; (P) 1.0883; (R1) 1.0908; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point, even though downside momentum is relatively unconvincing. Break of 1.0832 will extend the fall from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support. On the upside, above 1.0951 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1064 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

USD/JPY Could Correct Lower Below This Support

Cliff Notes: Shifting Risks and Rhetoric

Gold (XAUUSD) Has Scope for Further Downside

Gold Wave Analysis

EURGBP Wave Analysis

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Jul 3.30% 3.30%
23:30 JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Jul 3.10% 3.10% 3.30%
23:30 JPY National CPI ex Food Energy Y/Y Jul 4.30% 4.20%
06:00 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul -0.40% 0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul F 5.30% 5.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Core CPI Y/Y Jul F 5.50% 5.50%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jul 0.20% -0.60%
12:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index Jul 2.10% -1.50%