Europeans Lag as Commodity Currencies Ride the Wave of Optimism

Action Insight Daily Report 9-15-23

Europeans Lag as Commodity Currencies Ride the Wave of Optimism

Australian Dollar advanced during Asian session, bolstered by stronger than anticipated data emanating from China and the injection of CNY 191B of fresh liquidity into the banking system by PBoC. The injection, which involved CNY 34B through 14-day reverse repos at a reduced rate of 1.95%, down from the prior 2.15%, followed the Chinese central bank's decision to cut reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 25bps a day earlier.

Other commodity currencies are also experiencing a surge, buoyed by improving risk sentiment as analysts expect that the world is nearing the end of current tightening cycle. Adding fuel to the fire, Canadian Dollar received an extra push from the unrestrained ascent of WTI oil prices, which broke through 91 mark and shows no signs of halting.

In contrast, Euro finds itself as the week's underperformer, suffering a selloff triggered by the dovish ECB rate hike yesterday. While selling pressure witnessed a slight respite during Asian session, substantial rebound appears elusive. Sterling and Swiss Franc are also languishing, holding positions as the next weakest links in the chain.

Dollar and Yen are holding a middle ground, gaining against European majors but losing terrain to commodity currencies. Despite the release of this week's US CPI data, the greenback remained relatively unmoved, leaving traders to pin their hopes on next week's FOMC rate decision and economic projections for a more decisive direction.

Technically, GBP/AUD's strong break of 55 D EMA and medium term trend line support this week indicates that it's at least correcting the rise from 1.7128 to 1.9967. Deeper fall is now expected as long as 1.9463 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.7218 to 1.9967 at 1.8917. Reaction from there will reveal whether the cross is in a larger scale correction.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.33%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.53%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.01%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.01%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0025 at 0.706. Overnight, DOW rose 0.96%. S&P 500 rose 0.84%. NASDAQ rose 0.81%. 10-year yield rose 0.039 to 4.288.

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0600; (P) 1.0676; (R1) 1.0720; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment, as EUR/USD is pressing 1.0609/34 cluster support zone. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.0767 resistance, should confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.0944 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.0609/34 will carry larger bearish implication, and target 1.0515 support next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Aug 46.1 46.3 46.6
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 4.50% 4.00% 3.70%
02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Aug 3.20% 3.30% 3.40%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Aug 4.60% 3.00% 2.50%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul 0.90% 0.20% -0.40% -0.70%
08:30 GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 13.5B 12.5B
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Jul -1.70%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Sep -10 -19
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Aug 0.30% 0.40%
13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.20% 1.00%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Aug 79.30% 79.30%
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Sep P 69.5 69.5