Dollar Supported by Risk Aversion, Gold Breaks Down
| Action Insight Daily Report 9-16-22 |
Dollar Supported by Risk Aversion, Gold Breaks Down |
Overall, Dollar remains the strongest one for the week, followed by Swiss Franc and then Yen. Risk aversion support these currencies, on the expectation of another jumbo rate hike by Fed next week. Commodity currencies are the worst performers with Kiwi having an underhand. Euro and Sterling are mixed for now, with Euro having a slight advantage, but that could easily flip. Technically, a big move came yesterday as Gold dived through key cluster support at around 1680 (which coincides with 38.% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84). A long term double top pattern should be formed with tops at 2074.84 and 2070.06. A weekly close below 1680 will affirm this bearish case. The stage would then be set for deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1439.18 in Q4. Downside momentum could intensify if US 10-year yield could break through 3.483 high decisively to resume medium term up trend. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.07%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.52%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.38%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0028 at 0.260. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.56%. S&P 500 fell -1.13%. NASDAQ lost -1.43%. 10-year yield rose 0.047 to 3.459. |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3208; (R1) 1.3261; More... USD/CAD's break of 1.3222 resistance confirms resumption of up trend from 1.2005. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, below 1.3238 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 1.2952 support to bring another rally. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Aug | 54.9 | 52.7 | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Aug | 5.40% | 3.20% | 2.70% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Aug | 4.20% | 4.00% | 3.80% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Y/Y Aug | 5.80% | 5.60% | 5.70% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Aug | -1.60% | -0.60% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales Y/Y Aug | -5.40% | -4.20% | -3.40% | -3.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel M/M Aug | -1.60% | -0.70% | 0.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales ex-Fuel Y/Y Aug | -5.00% | -3.40% | -3.00% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Trade Balance (EUR) Jul | -1.50B | -2.17B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug F | 9.10% | 9.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Aug F | 4.30% | 4.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Jul | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Sep P | 59.8 | 58.2 |
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