Yen Crosses Accelerating Upward on Persistent Rally in Treasury Yields
Action Insight Daily Report 9-28-21

Yen Crosses Accelerating Upward on Persistent Rally in Treasury Yields

Strong rally in treasury yields is currently the main theme driving the markets. On the back on hawkish Fed rhetorics, 2-year yield rose to 18-month high, above 0.3%. Benchmark 10-year yield also breaks above 1.5% handle. Yen is currently the worst performing one, with persistent selling pressure. Euro and Swiss Franc are also weak. On the other hand, commodity currencies are the better performers, as led by Canadian, with WTI oil breaching 76 handle. Dollar is mixed for the moment, partly supported by the strength in yield.

Technically, CAD/JPY's break of 87.87 resistance, as well as the sustained trading above 55 day EMA, suggests that correction from 91.16 has completed at 84.65. Immediate focus is now on 88.44 resistance. Decisive break there will further affirm this bullish case and bring retest of 91.16 high. At the same time, USD/JPY is also accelerating up towards 111.65/71 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication. We'll see if Yen's selloff would extend, or even accelerate, for the rest of the week.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.42%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.46%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.53%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.48%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0101 at 0.066. Overnight, DOW rose 0.21%> S&P 500 dropped -0.28%. NASAQ dropped -0.52%. 10-year yield rose 0.024 to 1.484.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.68; (P) 110.87; (R1) 111.21; More...

USD/JPY's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 111.65 high. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 111.65/71 will confirm this case and carry larger bullish implication. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 110.52 will delay the breakout and turn intraday bias neutral first.

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Aug -1.70% -2.50% -2.70%
6:00 EUR Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Oct -1.6 -1.2
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Aug P -87.0B -86.4B
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Aug P 0.80% 0.60%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Cities Home Price Y/Y Jul 20.10% 19.10%
13:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Jul 1.50% 1.60%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Sep 114.3 113.8